Jump to content

Urban Meyer or bust


BurntOrange&White

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

Pos rep.   Baseball analytics are ruining everything from other sports to political polling.  Virtually everything else in the world that is of interest to anyone is much more dynamic than baseball and much less suited for robotically using a simple statistical model as a predictive tool that you slavishly follow for decision making.  It’s like some blackjack card counter thinking he can translate that into a foolproof system for sports betting or the stock market.  

Analytics also ruined the music industry. It’s why everything’ sounds the same 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Not a cat said:

"They did a good job defending Cade (Brewer). I think if you watch the replay, you’ll see Roschon Johnson wide open on the corner route, and we missed him.”

 

This quote is so perfectly Herman. Hey, don't blame me I made a perfect call, blame our back up punter for not being able to go through the progressions and get to his second read.  

Man, that is painfully accurate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

The interesting nugget in this story for me is that it was Fenves who made the call for Herman’s extension, and that CDC was opposed to it. Has anyone ever reported that before? That gives me some hope that CDC might know what he is doing.  Of course, it could be some propaganda out out by CDC’s people to use a guy who isn’t around anymore as a scapegoat. 

I think I recall hearing some stuff about that back when it happened. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I agree.  I can only hope there is some realization that the game has changed and that our leadership doesn't want to be Cal/Stanford.  losing to TCU on the reg and aggy at 5 might help a bit with the pressure.  seems we don't really care that tOSU/OU/Bama clown us on recruits.  Losing to OU doesn't much bother us anymore either.  It seems we are happy if we can just be 2nd or 3rd which means we don't reeeaalllly need to sell our souls for Urban Meyer.

Plus there’s that parity thing in the Big 12 that Tom keeps talking about. Well, accept OU. So we should lay off him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

The interesting nugget in this story for me is that it was Fenves who made the call for Herman’s extension, and that CDC was opposed to it. Has anyone ever reported that before? That gives me some hope that CDC might know what he is doing.  Of course, it could be some propaganda out out by CDC’s people to use a guy who isn’t around anymore as a scapegoat. 

Kind of funny as I thought I read fenves isn’t a Herm fan

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, TexasMan said:

 

This is what I’m going to keep an eye on. These kind of posts.   Will these still be the posts if Ewers comes back?  How bout if he brings 2 or 3 5 stars with him?  What if Urban comes in and wins a big 12 title year 1?  Playoffs in the first 2-3 years?   Are these posters still going to be “I hate my school for this”?  My FIL is a tOSU fan and he was the same way when Urban got hired (terrible person, scandal, don’t need him around) and after he won a title, he was a god/best coach in CFB, no one can replace him.  

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

This is what I’m going to keep an eye on. These kind of posts.   Will these still be the posts if Ewers comes back?  How bout if he brings 2 or 3 5 stars with him?  What if Urban comes in and wins a big 12 title year 1?  Playoffs in the first 2-3 years?   Are these posters still going to be “I hate my school for this”?  My FIL is a tOSU fan and he was the same way when Urban got hired (terrible person, scandal, don’t need him around) and after he won a title, he was a god/best coach in CFB, no one can replace him.  

urban isn’t coming, guy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

The interesting nugget in this story for me is that it was Fenves who made the call for Herman’s extension, and that CDC was opposed to it. Has anyone ever reported that before? That gives me some hope that CDC might know what he is doing.  Of course, it could be some propaganda out out by CDC’s people to use a guy who isn’t around anymore as a scapegoat. 

That is a curious statement. I hope it is true, but why would Fenves push for an extension? Specially if CDC was against it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Texasrocks said:

That is a curious statement. I hope it is true, but why would Fenves push for an extension? Specially if CDC was against it.

According to the article, Herman's agent put the push on Fenves after the Sugar Bowl win against UGA and Fenves went along with it over CDC's objections.

I really don't get the panic in administrations to extend coaches after two decent/promising years.  Every time we have a coaching search we just assume we aren't getting a sitting HC from another P5 school, why are we so worried about them bolting when the HC is sitting at our school? Is recruiting in year 3 really going to suffer that much if the coach hasn't been extended beyond the original deal and only has two years left on it?

Texas is not unique in this regard, Tennessee is really regretting extending Jeremy Pruitt after last year, and now the fan base is lusting after Hugh Freeze, but looking at a huge buyout to do it.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I don’t think a picture of me has ever been posted. I beat that same poor bastard poster by more than 10 yards in a 100 yard sprint like a year ago. I’m 6’2”. Typical futureman nonsense. 

Well then Sydney Carton is like 6’6” by comparison. 
 

In the picture we saw your body type looked similar to Diego Maradona at age 50. I guess he used to be fast too. 

Edited by GRHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

Double reverse futureman confirmation of his futurmanism and me actually enjoying his posts because of being aware of said futuremanism is one of my favorite things.

I was black out and not exactly sure what I meant by it but pretty sure I stand by it.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Duane Moore said:

The interesting nugget in this story for me is that it was Fenves who made the call for Herman’s extension, and that CDC was opposed to it. Has anyone ever reported that before? That gives me some hope that CDC might know what he is doing.  Of course, it could be some propaganda out out by CDC’s people to use a guy who isn’t around anymore as a scapegoat. 

Fuck Fenves, we should find him and skull fuck him with a herman bobble head 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Texasrocks said:

That is a curious statement. I hope it is true, but why would Fenves push for an extension? Specially if CDC was against it.

Because he’s the same guy that got on a plane with Strong to go personally hire some lame coach from Tulsa?

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The interesting nugget in this story for me is that it was Fenves who made the call for Herman’s extension, and that CDC was opposed to it. Has anyone ever reported that before? That gives me some hope that CDC might know what he is doing.  Of course, it could be some propaganda out out by CDC’s people to use a guy who isn’t around anymore as a scapegoat. 
I don't remember the story at the time but every comment since then laid the extension at CDCs feet. This caught my attention as well.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, utee94 said:

You forgot the "Paystub Challenge"

 

Ah, good ol rocko and his dumb ass clown shit.

 

 

11 hours ago, wood said:

Our Ol' Dirty Bastard?

 

Coach Wu Tang ain't nothin to fuck with.

 

 

11 hours ago, ztejas said:

Give Gruden 2 weeks of prep and he'd take this roster and tan OU's ass until they stained the linoleum in their trailers red.

Not sure if he would recruit worth a shit or even answer the phone when a BMD called, though, so there's that.

 

Fuck. John. Gruden. I'll show up to his announcement just to knock his teeth out. The paper would be worth it. Fuck that pole smoking asshat.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Augustus said:

I'm convinced that the game of football is the sport in which analytics are the most useless.

I agree with this. Or at least, football strategy analytics are immature and a long way from being applied properly. 

Baseball is a different animal. At the core of the game, there is one pitcher and one hitter. The pitcher is trying to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball hard. The hitter is trying to hit the ball hard. This almost never changes - hell, the situations in which this isn't the strategy (intentional walks, bunts) are almost extinct now. Neither the pitcher nor the hitter relies on anybody else to accomplish his goal. The game situation doesn't impact his goal. Because every pitch is minimally impacted by variables beyond the pitcher and the hitter, and because their objectives don't change based on game situations, the data is pretty straightforward and broadly applicable. (And yes, I know there is strategy based on how to pitch certain hitters, when to swing on 3-0, etc - but by and large, the sample sizes are so big that this degree of nuance doesn't change the analysis.)

Football isn't remotely like that. "Should I go for it on 4th and 1" can't be applied to all situations uniformly. Just this one decision depends on the game situation - how much time is left, what's the score, etc - and personnel considerations - is my line getting its ass kicked, is my QB accurate, can my receivers be counted on to catch the ball in traffic, who's on the other side, etc. And then you have to combine the decision with the appropriate play call, which also carries all of these variables. 

So - it seems impossibly simplistic to throw a blanket "the analytics say..." statement for football, at least to the level of this type of decision making. There are simply too many variables and too much nuance to prepare "analytics" based decisions for every plausible situation. 

TL;DR - Herman is full of shit with his "analytics" garbage, and I doubt he understands any of it anyway at any meaningful level. 

  • Hook 'Em 7
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I agree with this. Or at least, football strategy analytics are immature and a long way from being applied properly. 

Baseball is a different animal. At the core of the game, there is one pitcher and one hitter. The pitcher is trying to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball hard. The hitter is trying to hit the ball hard. This almost never changes - hell, the situations in which this isn't the strategy (intentional walks, bunts) are almost extinct now. Neither the pitcher nor the hitter relies on anybody else to accomplish his goal. The game situation doesn't impact his goal. Because every pitch is minimally impacted by variables beyond the pitcher and the hitter, and because their objectives don't change based on game situations, the data is pretty straightforward and broadly applicable. (And yes, I know there is strategy based on how to pitch certain hitters, when to swing on 3-0, etc - but by and large, the sample sizes are so big that this degree of nuance doesn't change the analysis.)

Football isn't remotely like that. "Should I go for it on 4th and 1" can't be applied to all situations uniformly. Just this one decision depends on the game situation - how much time is left, what's the score, etc - and personnel considerations - is my line getting its ass kicked, is my QB accurate, can my receivers be counted on to catch the ball in traffic, who's on the other side, etc. And then you have to combine the decision with the appropriate play call, which also carries all of these variables. 

So - it seems impossibly simplistic to throw a blanket "the analytics say..." statement for football, at least to the level of this type of decision making. There are simply too many variables and too much nuance to prepare "analytics" based decisions for every plausible situation. 

TL;DR - Herman is full of shit with his "analytics" garbage, and I doubt he understands any of it anyway at any meaningful level. 

Good post and 100% agree. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I agree with this. Or at least, football strategy analytics are immature and a long way from being applied properly. 

Baseball is a different animal. At the core of the game, there is one pitcher and one hitter. The pitcher is trying to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball hard. The hitter is trying to hit the ball hard. This almost never changes - hell, the situations in which this isn't the strategy (intentional walks, bunts) are almost extinct now. Neither the pitcher nor the hitter relies on anybody else to accomplish his goal. The game situation doesn't impact his goal. Because every pitch is minimally impacted by variables beyond the pitcher and the hitter, and because their objectives don't change based on game situations, the data is pretty straightforward and broadly applicable. (And yes, I know there is strategy based on how to pitch certain hitters, when to swing on 3-0, etc - but by and large, the sample sizes are so big that this degree of nuance doesn't change the analysis.)

Football isn't remotely like that. "Should I go for it on 4th and 1" can't be applied to all situations uniformly. Just this one decision depends on the game situation - how much time is left, what's the score, etc - and personnel considerations - is my line getting its ass kicked, is my QB accurate, can my receivers be counted on to catch the ball in traffic, who's on the other side, etc. And then you have to combine the decision with the appropriate play call, which also carries all of these variables. 

So - it seems impossibly simplistic to throw a blanket "the analytics say..." statement for football, at least to the level of this type of decision making. There are simply too many variables and too much nuance to prepare "analytics" based decisions for every plausible situation. 

TL;DR - Herman is full of shit with his "analytics" garbage, and I doubt he understands any of it anyway at any meaningful level. 

Damn good post.  I also think a difference is that football changes so much. Football played today is different from 5-10-15 years ago and it’s night and day vs 90s football. 
 

not every situation in football is the same either. 
 

 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I agree with this. Or at least, football strategy analytics are immature and a long way from being applied properly. 

Baseball is a different animal. At the core of the game, there is one pitcher and one hitter. The pitcher is trying to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball hard. The hitter is trying to hit the ball hard. This almost never changes - hell, the situations in which this isn't the strategy (intentional walks, bunts) are almost extinct now. Neither the pitcher nor the hitter relies on anybody else to accomplish his goal. The game situation doesn't impact his goal. Because every pitch is minimally impacted by variables beyond the pitcher and the hitter, and because their objectives don't change based on game situations, the data is pretty straightforward and broadly applicable. (And yes, I know there is strategy based on how to pitch certain hitters, when to swing on 3-0, etc - but by and large, the sample sizes are so big that this degree of nuance doesn't change the analysis.)

Football isn't remotely like that. "Should I go for it on 4th and 1" can't be applied to all situations uniformly. Just this one decision depends on the game situation - how much time is left, what's the score, etc - and personnel considerations - is my line getting its ass kicked, is my QB accurate, can my receivers be counted on to catch the ball in traffic, who's on the other side, etc. And then you have to combine the decision with the appropriate play call, which also carries all of these variables. 

So - it seems impossibly simplistic to throw a blanket "the analytics say..." statement for football, at least to the level of this type of decision making. There are simply too many variables and too much nuance to prepare "analytics" based decisions for every plausible situation. 

TL;DR - Herman is full of shit with his "analytics" garbage, and I doubt he understands any of it anyway at any meaningful level. 

Not to get all super nerdy on this, but it is tied to the fact that they are trying to develop a simple probabilistic concept, when they need to do something a bit more complex under the hood. This has decision trees written all over it. That way you can add much more appropriate splitting variables beyond just down and distance. The issue here then would be, what or how do you measure success as well...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I agree with this. Or at least, football strategy analytics are immature and a long way from being applied properly. 

Baseball is a different animal. At the core of the game, there is one pitcher and one hitter. The pitcher is trying to prevent the hitter from hitting the ball hard. The hitter is trying to hit the ball hard. This almost never changes - hell, the situations in which this isn't the strategy (intentional walks, bunts) are almost extinct now. Neither the pitcher nor the hitter relies on anybody else to accomplish his goal. The game situation doesn't impact his goal. Because every pitch is minimally impacted by variables beyond the pitcher and the hitter, and because their objectives don't change based on game situations, the data is pretty straightforward and broadly applicable. (And yes, I know there is strategy based on how to pitch certain hitters, when to swing on 3-0, etc - but by and large, the sample sizes are so big that this degree of nuance doesn't change the analysis.)

Football isn't remotely like that. "Should I go for it on 4th and 1" can't be applied to all situations uniformly. Just this one decision depends on the game situation - how much time is left, what's the score, etc - and personnel considerations - is my line getting its ass kicked, is my QB accurate, can my receivers be counted on to catch the ball in traffic, who's on the other side, etc. And then you have to combine the decision with the appropriate play call, which also carries all of these variables. 

So - it seems impossibly simplistic to throw a blanket "the analytics say..." statement for football, at least to the level of this type of decision making. There are simply too many variables and too much nuance to prepare "analytics" based decisions for every plausible situation. 

TL;DR - Herman is full of shit with his "analytics" garbage, and I doubt he understands any of it anyway at any meaningful level. 

all one reporter would have to do, after analytics is blamed for a shitty decision, is ask about the 3 or 4 other situations in the game where he went against the analytics. Take the fake punt for instance.  Is going for it on 4th and 8 from ISU's 48 the right analytic call?

I thought it was funny he said he thought about it.  if you are doing analytics you don't think about it at all and if you don't follow the analytics all the time then you have just screwed up the analytics.  the whole thing is bullshit.

I can see it now.  

OC coach to Herman after press conf - "did they ask you about the 4th and 1?"

Herman "yeah"

OC "what'd you say?"

Herman "I told them it was analytics"

Both let out a hearty laugh as they sip some  Macallan 25

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Not to get all super nerdy on this, but it is tied to the fact that they are trying to develop a simple probabilistic concept, when they need to do something a bit more complex under the hood. This has decision trees written all over it. That way you can add much more appropriate splitting variables beyond just down and distance. The issue here then would be, what or how do you measure success as well...

Yup, makes sense. But there are a lot of variables to account for, and it seems incredibly complex...and even if the analysis is sound, it still has to be applied properly in game situations. 

It just seems a lot messier compared to, say, baseball analysts concluding "we should almost never bunt." It'll get cleaner over time, just seems like most in football aren't there yet in terms of understanding the application. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hank Chinaski said:

Yup, makes sense. But there are a lot of variables to account for, and it seems incredibly complex...and even if the analysis is sound, it still has to be applied properly in game situations. 

It just seems a lot messier compared to, say, baseball analysts concluding "we should almost never bunt." It'll get cleaner over time, just seems like most in football aren't there yet in terms of understanding the application. 

Analytics in baseball vs football are two very different things. Herman will use the “analytics will say” card for his bullshit decision making without taking into account that football is a team sport and you need the personnel both on and off the field with the right combination of players and coaches in order to successfully execute a plan based on said analytics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hank Chinaski said:

Yup, makes sense. But there are a lot of variables to account for, and it seems incredibly complex...and even if the analysis is sound, it still has to be applied properly in game situations. 

It just seems a lot messier compared to, say, baseball analysts concluding "we should almost never bunt." It'll get cleaner over time, just seems like most in football aren't there yet in terms of understanding the application. 

That is the beauty of a decision tree. It can then essentially be set up as a set of steps of of various levels. Something like: What quarter, ahead, tied or behind, something around points (totat score or points deferential or something to balance out blowouts and shootouts), yard line, and maybe total % TOP of possession so far (something to look at measuring fatigue)...

I may try and use this as an assignment for my grad students Data Mining Take Home Final if I can get enough data real quick before it goes live on Monday..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Analytics are just great in the hands of great HC. Listening to Urban talk about what Bama will be missing without Saban on the field. (COVID) Sagan’s expertise is on defense and so in a situational sense that’s what they will be “missing” so to speak even though Saban isn’t calling the plays and is more of a game manager HC. UM said his expertise was on offense and so in certain situations (4th down etc) that’s when he would be consulted in the games. What do we do here? Then they talked about Texas and Iowa State. UM said it was a shame (posted this in the other thread) that a great player like Sam had his last play at home be a sack. Quoted Breece Hall’s remark about it being five star culture vs five star players. Said it’s hard to bet against Iowa State in the Big 12 right now. That they have a winning mentality—think they won’t be beat then they can’t be beat. 
 

anyway, analytics are fine in the hands of a HC that knows how to use them. And also employs their expertise (be it on offense or defense) additionally.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look we’ve had a couple of Urban’s kids try and coach here and fail. Now it’s time for the adult to take over and show the kids how it’s done. 
 

women that are worried, should talk to CDC about a rights group that works with the athletic department that could include racial injustice and feminism to cover all the woke bases. 
 

the business is winning games and as ridiculous as it may sound to those that don’t care, it’s a reality of our country that sports matter and generate cash. Which makes it even bigger than just winning. We are talking about causing change in the lives of many, many people purely on account of the profile of the football program. More athletes getting contracts in the nfl, more jobs in the AD dept, more opportunities for coaches, more students coming to Texas,...the list goes ever on. But no one wants to be part of a losing culture. And that’s exactly how it works.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Joe Brady’s one year as a passing game coordinator while coaching a #1 draft pick qualifies him for the head coaching job at Texas?

christmas vacation GIF

This is an unbelievably stupid post. Brady would be a no brainer if Meyer said no, but it doesn’t matter because he’ll be an NFL HC in short order. 

24 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

In case I didn't say it earlier, I think Cristobal stands the best chance of wrecking shop at Texas.

 

The guy who only beat UCLA by 3, just lost to Oregon State, and managed to make Herbert look just ok in college? He put one of the best college QBs in recent memory in multiple god awful offensive systems and covered up his talent. Shit’s gonna get bad for Cristobal now that he doesn’t have Herbert to save him. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

Herman said they worked on the 4th down fake punt for 2 weeks? So 2 weeks of preparation led to a fucking 5 yard pass well short of the sticks? Bravo you fucking loser.

That was a great play for 4th and 2.  Horrible for 4th and 8.  One of the many reasons he needs to go.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Vertigo said:

No hire that we could possibly make is going to please 100% of the fanbase. There was a contingent who wanted Gary Barnett when Mack was hired.

What people fail to realize is that it is an AD's job to hire winning coaches. Not to be woke, or make a place for women's voices, or any other social issue. Right now, CDC is doing his job. Hiring the best coach available, one that will energize the fanbase, goose donations, and bring Texas back to the national spotlight. If he gets this hire, the rest of his job becomes easier, and he may settle in to be the next DeLoss if he gets the program headed in the right long term direction with clear succession should Urban step down. You can't realistically ask for more from a college football program or from an AD.

Nice post until you got to Deloss.  Deloss could run the media and conference games pretty well, but he was shit at hiring coaches.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look I'm just as upset as everyone else and definitely think that Herman needs to go but I really don't think we should hire Urban Meyer.  The man simply should not be allowed to be around kids anymore.  There is no moral argument there.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck You 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Duane Moore said:

The interesting nugget in this story for me is that it was Fenves who made the call for Herman’s extension, and that CDC was opposed to it. Has anyone ever reported that before? That gives me some hope that CDC might know what he is doing.  Of course, it could be some propaganda out out by CDC’s people to use a guy who isn’t around anymore as a scapegoat. 

Either way it is smart, but I doubt CDC would leak this if it could be disputed. 
 

Biggest take away for me too.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jinx said:

That was a great play for 4th and 2.  Horrible for 4th and 8.  One of the many reasons he needs to go.  

Exactly. Tom even gave a big reason in his own words in a presser a few weeks ago (after a loss—I think it was TCU and not OU). “How do you get a group of guys who want to be great to show us in games what they show us in practice?” (It is not exact quote—I quoted it a few weeks ago—but the idea is the same). 
 

the point is, Tom doesn’t know. He doesn’t know now and he didn’t know then. In year four (as pointed out by @jdhorn92 it’s like it’s 1 year x4 for Herman), he doesn’t know. 
 

I would have some sympathy for him if it wasn’t for the Mensa arrogance rammed down our throats. He doesn’t know why practice “excellence” doesn’t translate into victories in games. He simply doesn’t know. And here endeth the lesson. It’s a little scary to be the HC of a major program and ask that question out loud in a presser after games. Even scarier that we paid him millions upon millions to not know. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Apex73 said:

Look I'm just as upset as everyone else and definitely think that Herman needs to go but I really don't think we should hire Urban Meyer.  The man simply should not be allowed to be around kids anymore.  There is no moral argument there.  

staggering ignorance. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • immamac changed the title to Urban Meyer or bust
  • immamac locked this topic
  • immamac unlocked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...