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Cairn Horn88

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9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I'm sitting here staring at this table thinking, "That column averages out to more than 5.7%, doesn't it?"

And yes, it averages to 8.14%.  How the hell does someone screw up the =average function?

I was gonna guess they did a SUM then divided by 13 (not 8 ) because of the 5 blank cells, but that leads to 5.01% . . . so, no idea.  Impressive, though.

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53 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

The best people.  

https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-documents-case-judge-made-multiple-errors-earlier-trial-2023-08-04/

 

 

 

 

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The unprecedented prosecution of a former president as he campaigns seeking a return to the White House promises to bring enormous public scrutiny. The trial also will represent the first time that Cannon handles a case involving classified evidence and the arcane rules surrounding it.

Cannon's trial errors also illustrate her judicial inexperience, five former federal judges - Democratic and Republican appointees - said in interviews.

"A lack of experience can be really hard in a big case, especially when there's all this media attention and everything you do is being watched and commented on and second-guessed," said Jeremy Fogel, a former federal judge who leads the Berkeley Judicial Institute in California.

Fogel said Cannon made "two fairly significant mistakes" during jury selection in the June trial.

"It looms larger because of who the judge is," Fogel added.

Mark Bennett, the former Chief U.S. District Judge of the Northern District of Iowa, said, "She should have figured ahead of time a way to accommodate a small number of family members in a very small courtroom, in my opinion. It's just the right thing to do, and not run the risk of there being reversible error."

Cannon did not respond to a request for comment. Scott Berry, a federal public defender representing Spearman, declined to comment, as did a Justice Department spokesperson.

LIMITED EXPERIENCE
As a judge, Cannon so far has presided over four criminal trials that resulted in jury verdicts. She previously also worked on four criminal trials that resulted in jury verdicts when she served a federal prosecutor from 2013 to 2020, according to a questionnaire she filled out before the Senate confirmed her as a judge.

Cannon faced a rebuke from the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals when it reversed her 2022 order appointing a third party to review documents seized by the FBI from Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort home in Florida in the classified records investigation.

"We cannot write a rule that allows any subject of a search warrant to block government investigations after the execution of the warrant. Nor can we write a rule that allows only former presidents to do so," the 11th Circuit panel of three judges - all Republican appointees - wrote in reversing Cannon's ruling and ordering the dismissal of a lawsuit filed by Trump that sought to shield documents from federal investigators.

Trump's upcoming trial on 40 criminal counts of retaining classified records, obstruction of justice, conspiracy and concealment will present a new level of complexity. Trump faces separate trials on two other sets of federal and state criminal charges.

Paul Grimm, a former federal judge in Maryland who now leads the Bolch Judicial Institute at Duke Law School in North Carolina, said it is not unusual for a new judge to have to deal with a high-profile matter, as case assignments are random.

"You get the case on the draw of it," Grimm said. "You can ask for help - but if you choose not to ask for help, then no one's going to make you" seek guidance.

 

'YOUR OBJECTION IS OVERRULED'
Cannon began jury selection on June 12 in the trial of Spearman, who was charged with conspiring to advertise and distribute images of child sexual abuse and with engaging in a child exploitation enterprise.

That day, the court transcript showed, Cannon failed to swear in the jury pool. Cannon also declined to open the courtroom to the public despite repeated requests from both prosecutors and defense attorneys, the transcript showed.

Some of the former federal judges interviewed by Reuters said their courtroom deputies sometimes would remind them of procedural steps like swearing in prospective jurors, as they may be focused on other aspects of running a trial.

Berry, the federal defender, argued in the courtroom that Cannon's refusal to let his client's mother and sister be present during jury selection was a Sixth Amendment violation.

"All right, thank you. Your objection is overruled," Cannon replied, according to the transcript.

A federal prosecutor in the case, Greg Schiller, later pressed Cannon to let in Spearman's mother. Schiller raised a 2010 U.S. Supreme Court precedent that held that judges must weigh less restrictive alternatives prior to closing a courtroom to the public, including during the jury selection process.

When Berry later pointed to two open chairs in the room, Cannon resisted his request again, saying the chairs were reserved for law enforcement.

"Mr. Spearman's mother is free to join us once the jury selection process has concluded and/or there is truly enough room in the courtroom," Cannon said, according to the transcript.

Cannon later offered to let in Spearman's family after the judge realized she also had failed to swear in the jury pool. She said there would be room in the courtroom after certain jurors who both sides in the case agreed should be dismissed had left.

The jury selection process never re-started because Spearman and the prosecutors entered into a "conditional" plea deal, an uncommon arrangement that preserves a defendant's right to appeal certain rulings by the trial judge. In most plea deals, defendants waive the bulk of their appellate rights.

The decision by Spearman, who is due to be sentenced by Cannon on Aug. 31, to enter a plea deal averted the problem with the court closure. But legal experts said it raises questions about how Cannon will handle public access for Trump's trial.

"She is going to have to make some accommodations," Santa Clara's Smith said.

 

Yeah, evidence that she's probably more of a dumbass than anything else.

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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

The wife and I have decided to volunteer to help with Georgia 55, a program dedicated to helping people get to vote.  We are going to take off work during early voting to help people get to polls, drop boxes and etc by doing the ride program.  I don't know if such a thing exists in other states, but I believe there are opportunities out there along these lines.  My goal is to personally get 100 voters to vote that otherwise wouldn't have been able to.  How they vote is obviously their business, but I know any increase in participation is good and generally favors us.  Even if you can't volunteer that sort of time, there are other ways to contribute, such as coordination, vote curing, etc.  Bottom line, I'll be damned if I am going to watch these fucksticks win simply because someone like myself who had the ability to help didn't.  

I've often wondered if Texas is a completely lost cause and it would be better for Texas Democrats to put their money and time into helping in states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, etc. 

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4 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I've often wondered if Texas is a completely lost cause and it would be better for Texas Democrats to put their money and time into helping in states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, etc. 

Texas needs a Dem win for anything to sort of spark a fire. I think that’s did it for Arizona and Georgia. 

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58 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I'm sitting here staring at this table thinking, "That column averages out to more than 5.7%, doesn't it?"

And yes, it averages to 8.14%.  How the hell does someone screw up the =average function?

The doc is larger than the picture, and the 5.7% is fairly meaningless. These numbers span several states and different types of elections, the important thing is the Dems are performing well overall.  

image.thumb.png.a12f4724174798aef20f75aa2f9aded0.png

LINK

Edited by Dutchrudder
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2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

One hundred percent.  The crimes alleged occurred in DC.

Even if there was a change of venue to Maryland or Virgitina, the DC Circuit retains appellate jurisdiction.

And with that said, I wouldn’t advise Trump on filing for COV. He’s not going to get more friendly juries in either of those states. Of course he probably has it in his tiny little mind that he can shift the venues of all his cases to Aileen Cannon.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I was gonna guess they did a SUM then divided by 13 (not 8 ) because of the 5 blank cells, but that leads to 5.01% . . . so, no idea.  Impressive, though.

I figured that you would want to weight the '20-23 SWING' by the number of voters to make something that can be averaged sensibly. Just averaging the raw values doesn't make much sense.

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I live in a really really blue city (ahem... Austin) but I'll volunteer to try to get people to register and vote.  Yes, we have great turnout in the county for national elections but we probably need more college students and lazy idiots to vote to help with state-wide elections.  Count me in.  I'll stand on the UT campus with a sign and voter registration cards.  "OU Sucks, Please register to vote"

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11 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I know this is pure wishcasting, but maybe Ted is not out of the woods yet.

don't give me hope.gif

5 hours ago, Pancho said:

They have a backup plan. I think that’s been pretty clear.

image.gif.39141ffb1e4449a16b7ab93acd1c3362.gif

2 hours ago, Celery Man said:

t6n6g3j9ftka1.jpg

man, those titties tell me "yes!" but that face says "aw hell naw"

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

Does he really not know how the judiciary works? 

 

he doesn't know how anything in the US government works, and he was the head of it for four years

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Quote

I have no idea how on earth they're going to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Donald Trump actually believes he lost the election.

After the 2020 United States presidential election, the campaign for incumbent President Donald Trump and others filed and lost at least 63 lawsuits[1] contesting election processes, vote counting, and the vote certification process in multiple states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[2] Among the judges who dismissed the lawsuits were some appointed by Trump himself.[3]

Nearly all the suits were dismissed or dropped due to lack of evidence.[4] Judges, lawyers, and other observers described the suits as "frivolous"[5] and "without merit".[6][7] In one instance, the Trump campaign and other groups seeking his reelection collectively lost multiple cases in six states on a single day.[8] Only one ruling was initially in Trump's favor: the timing within which first-time Pennsylvania voters must provide proper identification if they wanted to “cure” their ballots. This ruling affected very few votes,[9] and it was later overturned by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.[10]

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Re: Puckering vs re-election likelihood...

First, Trump knows full well the polls don't show him beating Biden. He's repeating that over and over again as a foundation for the next coup attempt.

Second, when you do a risk analysis, you multiply the likelihood of something happening (on a 1-4 scale) times the severity (also 1-4). Then you sort by those numbers, and address the biggest ones.

The likelihood of Trump winning is low (1). The severity is very high (4). It would be catastrophic. So call that a 4. I'm not worried.

The likelihood of another coup attempt occurring AND succeeding is higher than that of him winning. Partially because we know for certain that they're going to try already. And because we know GOP controlled states are already making preparations for it. They're planning on it, they can see the mistakes they made the first time they tried it, and are going to try again now that they know some mistakes not to make.

The average Joe doesn't worry about such things because they feel unlikely. But look at the Republicans' behavior. They're going to do everything possible to stay in power. They've already tried a coup, and they're gearing up to make another one, this time with long-term planning.

And if that fails, they're going to try again and again and again. Because they know they've lost popular opinion, and this is the only way to stay in power now.

The severity is a 4, but the likelihood of success? I'd make it a 3. Call that a 12. That's stupid high.

So the next step is mitigation. What do we do to mitigate the risks?

Well, one thing we can do, and are doing, is do everything possible to increase voter turnout. First, we know it helps us. Second, it makes any coup attempt look more illegitimate.

How else can we defeat the upcoming coup attempt?

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9 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

their defense is he didn't know he lost? so basically insanity? cool.

And, as others smarter than me have pointed out:

1. He absolutely did know, and

2. What he's guilty of doing, it doesn't matter if he knew or not

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Well, there's the violent way, which I'd rather not have.  But I'm thinking that's about a 8-12 on your risk scale.

Yeah, that's what happens AFTER the coup attempt succeeds.

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20 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

their defense is he didn't know he lost? so basically insanity? cool.

I see everything that they are saying into cameras, and Trump demanding to move the trial to WV, or have the Supreme Court intervene as delay tactics.  I wouldn't put it past them to try for a mistrial, even though they would have to pay court fees.  But I'm not a lawdog, so my lack of court knowledge probably shows.  

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1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

My concern is that it’s not by chance that she’s a dumbass. It’s because she was selected for her loyalty to Trump over her competence for the job. 

There's little evidence of that in her background.

The worst thing in her background is that she was a member of Fed Soc.  Leonard Leo doesn't concern himself much with district court appointees, so they're not typically demagogues.

If I had to guess, it would be that she was a brown woman with some conservative credentials and that's about it.  She was proposed by lil Marco, which makes sense.

She's quite young and quite inexperienced as an attorney for a US DJ.

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1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

The worst thing in her background is that she was a member of Fed Soc.  Leonard Leo doesn't concern himself much with district court appointees, so they're not typically demagogues.

 

At this point, being in the Fed Soc is bad enough imo

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Not guilty by reason of extreme stupidity 

guess this will test the theory of whether it's morally acceptable to execute the highly regarded

1 hour ago, HornPhD said:

He probably thinks it has something to do with “the Jews.”

Harry Potter Lol GIF by Sky

But in all seriousness, I doubt that man knows how ANYTHING works. Get him to explain how a plane flies. A literal 5th grader could tell you. He would not be able to.

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1 hour ago, hookem2010 said:

Are we going to reach legal inception, where Trump's attorney's attorneys need attorneys?

south-park.gif

 

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

don't give me hope.gif

image.gif.39141ffb1e4449a16b7ab93acd1c3362.gif

man, those titties tell me "yes!" but that face says "aw hell naw"

 

he doesn't know how anything in the US government works, and he was the head of it for four years

There ain't nothin' wrong with Jackie Denardo's face but -- I get it, so does Frank

b181efb1-f354-4c1e-b390-cd8a8dd91acb_tex

 

13 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Dipshit steals other people's material:

 

1b925ae5-a08f-4661-9471-0bcc993146a5_tex

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7 minutes ago, C-Man said:

south-park.gif

 

There ain't nothin' wrong with Jackie Denardo's face but -- I get it, so does Frank

b181efb1-f354-4c1e-b390-cd8a8dd91acb_tex

 

1b925ae5-a08f-4661-9471-0bcc993146a5_tex

i mean, there's better pictures of Jessica Collins out there, right?

0011634_150_215.jpeg

... or. ok, so she's David Lee Roth in drag.

 

still would

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