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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
Philly is popping off today as we approach 10:30am on the east coast.
Estimated day of turnout: 262,883
Estimated total turnout so far: 441,085 out of 2020's 749,000

This is good right? I feel like this is good.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Tonesky said:

Have you worked out your plan for travel to the nearest Chili’s?

In spirit, I’m gonna pretend all the yummy Taiwanese/Chinese cuisine I’m eating is off the Chili’s menu!

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Posted

Also nobody needs to do a welfare check on me between 10:45 and noon (central time) - I have a nice hour long training session with my phone in a locker and then running to the dispensary and Target to load up for tonight. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So yesterday I closed on the sale of a house.  Very long story--was supposed to be Mrs.LL's dream house, but interest rates happened and the timing and shit and now it just makes more sense to renovate the current house.  So today, I have quite a lot of money sitting in cash in my brokerage account.

Here's the thing--Wall Street doesn't understand shit about politics.  Mrs.LL was in finance for a long time, and ever since we've been together, I've always been shocked by how little Wall Street understands politics.  So much of their business is dictated by what happens in Washington, but they understand fuck-all about it.  And right now, Wall Street is expecting 1) a Trump win (and the inflationary and recessionary dangers that come with that) and 2) a period of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as happened in 2020.

Based on everything we know, I strongly expect neither of those things.  And I think the market is going to react very favorably to 1) No Trump, and 2) certainty (irrespective of who wins) when the race is called shortly after midnight CST.  So fuck your prediction thread--I'm putting my money where my mouth is.  When the market goes up 5% tomorrow on the strength of a definitive Kamala win, the first round at Chili's is on me.

You made the right choice to invest it whether the market goes up, down, or sideways. If you'd kept that money in cash you know you'd sober up to a whopping rent check from the marina for your new fleet of jet-skis.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected -

Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao.  Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish. 

Fogo was our go-to finals celebration meal several times back in the day. 20 year-old me was not about to spend $30 on lunch and not need to be rolled out of the building 2 hours later.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also nobody needs to do a welfare check on me between 10:45 and noon (central time) - I have a nice hour long training session with my phone in a locker and then running to the dispensary and Target to load up for tonight. 

Yo, your HR is just mean, man.

Posted
1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Okay, I'll admit it, I don't know the genesis of the chili's talk.

 

In the Augustinian tradition of Chili's there is no beginning to Chili's talk, but rather Chili's created the queso skillet from nothing yet has always been above existence.

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Posted

All this ignorance about Chili's tells me 

1) you don't live in Austin

2) you don't live in Austin and see it constantly mentioned as THE place to visit when in Austin

3) you live in Austin and are not aware that the specific Chili's we are referring to is at 45th and Lamar

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/why-is-the-chilis-at-45th-and-north-lamar-famous-online/

Possibly the origin story...

image.thumb.png.03f6cc92161cc332f8f99a5009dde098.png

Posted
1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Early update on polling lines in metro Atlanta is that the wait times are short.  That doesn't mean light either, Dekalb County alone has over 100 polling stations.  As much as I disagree with the Republicans running our elections, I have to give credit where it's due, this has been organized and well operated.  I expect that after tonight, with quick returns, Georgia will become the model of how to run this.  If you are going to be critical, you have to be fair, and they have done a good job with this.  It's not entirely partisan, but Rafspenger has done a good job.  

Florida usually has 90% of their votes tabulated within an hour after closing.  That's the standard ever state should shoot for.

Posted
6 minutes ago, G650 said:

I should have brought some Xanax to work today

I used to work for a company that had an on-site clinic and pharmacy in our office. You could literally pick up your desk phone dial the extension and request a walk in visit. Walk down the hall get a script take 20 steps to the pharmacy and be back at your desk with a $5 bottle of Xanax within 30 minutes.

When a private equity group bought the company and sent in the Bobs it seemed like everyone was walking around popping cheap Xanax. I took that as a sign to get another job.

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Yo, your HR is just mean, man.

Personal training.  Not work training.

I'm going to let some guy kick my ass for an hour to blow out the anxiety.

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Posted

This sucks that the game thread isn't opening yet.  Can we at least get one for  Election day updates and shenanigans (it can be locked when polls start to close)?  Or is that just what this thread has become?

Posted
26 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Remember when republicans thought they were in for a blowout victory in 2022? This thread reminds me of that, in reverse

Well fucking good for this thread.

Posted
41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I take back anything nice I said about DDHQ - their main guy is on twitter claiming Nevada is 100% going for Trump because "there's not many ballots left to be dropped off in Clark" - when THE guy in Nevada just went on TV and said there's a gigantic backlog of mail in Clark County, waiting to be processed.

Be careful, y'all - people are going to interpret (or misinterpret) data as they see fit today. 

Lot of hot takes for pre-noon turnouts, which are traditionally more GOP-leaning.  Don't fall into the Wasserman's dooming about 12pm turnouts that turned around pretty quickly by the end of the day

 

(ended up being a 10k, 3.5% loss, versus Dave dooming it would be a blowout) 

Hell, Wasserman last night was basically calling a Trump win and assuming a big polling error in his favor.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Personal training.  Not work training.

I'm going to let some guy kick my ass for an hour to blow out the anxiety.

Normally I'd post the Joker "very poor choice of words" gif, but since we all know your sexual preferences, I'm going to say congrats on paying for your sex. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh, lovely.  I just learned that Trump is open to banning vaccines should he win, in addition to RFK Jr's wacko "eliminate fluoridated water".  From Sunday:

Fuck me running

 

Along with all junk food.

Posted
12 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

You made the right choice to invest it whether the market goes up, down, or sideways. If you'd kept that money in cash you know you'd sober up to a whopping rent check from the marina for your new fleet of jet-skis.

Nah, if GOLL is going to blow a fortune on something aquatic, it’s going to be something like one of those gorgeous mahogany speedboats you see on Lake Como. Which might actually be a worse investment than jet skis

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Posted
Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

Nah, if GOLL is going to blow a fortune on something aquatic, it’s going to be something like one of those gorgeous mahogany speedboats you see on Lake Como

Riva Aquarama. Single sexiest boat ever made.

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Posted
59 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So yesterday I closed on the sale of a house.  Very long story--was supposed to be Mrs.LL's dream house, but interest rates happened and the timing and shit and now it just makes more sense to renovate the current house.  So today, I have quite a lot of money sitting in cash in my brokerage account.

Here's the thing--Wall Street doesn't understand shit about politics.  Mrs.LL was in finance for a long time, and ever since we've been together, I've always been shocked by how little Wall Street understands politics.  So much of their business is dictated by what happens in Washington, but they understand fuck-all about it.  And right now, Wall Street is expecting 1) a Trump win (and the inflationary and recessionary dangers that come with that) and 2) a period of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as happened in 2020.

Based on everything we know, I strongly expect neither of those things.  And I think the market is going to react very favorably to 1) No Trump, and 2) certainty (irrespective of who wins) when the race is called shortly after midnight CST.  So fuck your prediction thread--I'm putting my money where my mouth is.  When the market goes up 5% tomorrow on the strength of a definitive Kamala win, the first round at Chili's is on me.

Why Wall Street?  Just put it all on Harris to win. YOLO!!!!!1

Posted
19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Philly is popping off today as we approach 10:30am on the east coast.

Estimated day of turnout: 262,883

Estimated total turnout so far: 441,085 out of 2020's 749,000

This seems good, but not great.

Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Isn't D always stronger on ED? Shouldn't that be the given versus a "possibility?"

 

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I cannot decipher this.  What "is real"? The data?  Some prediction?

Explanation:

Democratic turnout increases through the day usually, so for the Democrats to already be running with GOP is a good sign potentially.

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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Isn't D always stronger on ED? Shouldn't that be the given versus a "possibility?"

The big thing is whether the GOP did truly eat into their E-Day votes this time around.  And it looks quite possible, which is likely why Ralston predicts Harris wins the state. 

The dooming over AZ is something to behold - yes, the GOP has a massive edge, but this is the state of McCain Republicans.  And indies are 700k early votes.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, YChang said:

In spirit, I’m gonna pretend all the yummy Taiwanese/Chinese cuisine I’m eating is off the Chili’s menu!

You eating at Coco's or something? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, F250 said:

Ha, no.

Under Trump every restaurant will be a McDonalds.

Well that was what RFK Jr said.

But Trump is doing none of those things.

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