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Thread of National Business that May Not Survive Coronavirus

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Landry's Inc, for starters.

 

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EDIT: in an effort to keep our readers updated, we are continuing to follow this story. We have had confirmation from several sources about this employment issue.

We have additional information  from a Landry’s property, the Golden Nugget Casino. After reading this Inside The Magic article, an employee reached out to share his notice from the company with us.

It reads:

Team Members will not be terminated, but due to the closures most will be placed on immediate furlough. All team members with a loss of hours are encouraged to reach out to the state as soon as possible regarding the potential payment of unemployment benefits… We have made the decision to maintain benefits for those team members currently enrolled in our health plan and who have accepted and remain on furlough through June 30, 2020. 

However, at this time the Company is suspending use of PTO until further notice. Therefore, hourly team members may not request or use PTO until further notice. Any accrued hours will be available upon your return for future use. Should you choose to resign from employment during this time, in accordance with applicable laws, we will pay out accrued and unused PTO, and your benefits coverage (if any) will terminate at the end of this month, March 2020. Any Team Members who choose to resign will not be scheduled when operations resume and will need to reapply for any open positions, once available. 

Salaries team members who are placed on furlough will not receive pay during that time. Salaried team members on furlough will not be permitted to access e-mail or any other systems while off, and should not respond to any work-related calls. If any manager asks you to work or perform any tasks related to work while on furlough, please contact Human Recourses. 

It is our sincere hope that these changes will only be in place for a short time. We look forward to getting back to work soon with our valued Team Members. We hope that everyone stays healthy and safe during these times.

 

 

There's a bunch of embedded shit at the link. I also received this:

 

89832664_10215461471151105_4503174455672

 

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Landry's Inc, for starters.
 

EDIT: in an effort to keep our readers updated, we are continuing to follow this story. We have had confirmation from several sources about this employment issue.

We have additional information  from a Landry’s property, the Golden Nugget Casino. After reading this Inside The Magic article, an employee reached out to share his notice from the company with us.

It reads:

Team Members will not be terminated, but due to the closures most will be placed on immediate furlough. All team members with a loss of hours are encouraged to reach out to the state as soon as possible regarding the potential payment of unemployment benefits… We have made the decision to maintain benefits for those team members currently enrolled in our health plan and who have accepted and remain on furlough through June 30, 2020. 

However, at this time the Company is suspending use of PTO until further notice. Therefore, hourly team members may not request or use PTO until further notice. Any accrued hours will be available upon your return for future use. Should you choose to resign from employment during this time, in accordance with applicable laws, we will pay out accrued and unused PTO, and your benefits coverage (if any) will terminate at the end of this month, March 2020. Any Team Members who choose to resign will not be scheduled when operations resume and will need to reapply for any open positions, once available. 

Salaries team members who are placed on furlough will not receive pay during that time. Salaried team members on furlough will not be permitted to access e-mail or any other systems while off, and should not respond to any work-related calls. If any manager asks you to work or perform any tasks related to work while on furlough, please contact Human Recourses. 

It is our sincere hope that these changes will only be in place for a short time. We look forward to getting back to work soon with our valued Team Members. We hope that everyone stays healthy and safe during these times.

 

 

There's a bunch of embedded shit at the link. I also received this:
 
89832664_10215461471151105_4503174455672963072_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=FyAJHQdwDjsAX9RRQAY&_nc_ht=scontent.fhou1-1.fna&oh=c1453fe1ae1b21d0f854a9fc7fe0e6c3&oe=5E9809D5
 

That’s bullshit. They can’t even apply for unemployment while on furlough.

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pretty sure every movie theater is going to end up in BK. 

hell for that matter, every airline, and cruise line is probably going to have to declare BK. 

 

they may be able to survive afterwards, but they arent gonna make it in the next 2 months.

 

honestly the only way to maybe avoid this is basically act like no mortgage/rent/leases are due for the next 3 months.     

add 4 months to the end of all loans/leases, and give everyone the next 3 months off from house/rent/car/business payments 

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1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

pretty sure every movie theater is going to end up in BK. 

hell for that matter, every airline, and cruise line is probably going to have to declare BK. 

 

they may be able to survive afterwards, but they arent gonna make it in the next 2 months.

 

honestly the only way to maybe avoid this is basically act like no mortgage/rent/leases are due for the next 3 months.     

add 4 months to the end of all loans/leases, and give everyone the next 3 months off from house/rent/car/business payments 

That was my solution in the “what would you do with $1,000 thread). Credit cards too. 

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Tillman Fertita is my second least favorite fake billionaire. 

No love for Fertitta, but I cannot imagine he isn’t a billionaire.

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6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

No love for Fertitta, but I cannot imagine he isn’t a billionaire.

If he ever was he isn’t anymore. He’s broke now. He loves leverage. He is getting busted. Fuck him. 

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Anything dependent on people "at leisure" and or moving freely is at risk.  Airlines, Restaurant Holding Groups, Movie Theaters, Production Companies, Hotel Chains, etc etc.  

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1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

pretty sure every movie theater is going to end up in BK. 

hell for that matter, every airline, and cruise line is probably going to have to declare BK. 

 

they may be able to survive afterwards, but they arent gonna make it in the next 2 months.

 

honestly the only way to maybe avoid this is basically act like no mortgage/rent/leases are due for the next 3 months.     

add 4 months to the end of all loans/leases, and give everyone the next 3 months off from house/rent/car/business payments 

I’m willing to float my commercial tenants 3 months of abated rent but have them pay NNN if they agree to 3 year extensions and repay the 3 months of abated rent plus interest amortized over the extended term.

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There will be some form of bailout for industries impacted by forced closures no doubt.  Big guys will probably be fine and probably be able to get leverage to gobble up the smaller players.

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1 hour ago, Continental Op said:

AMC Theaters is probably not long for this world

 

Oh darn. 

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this seems like a really good time to over-leverage my LP's and develop more retail strip centers.  They're just dynamite, and we need more of them.  I know coronavirus will pass soon, but this is a reminder of how wonderful it is to pay 20% more for items than is necessary because of the G&A involved in selling those goods next to a Jimmy John's and a dry cleaners.  

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That happened to me in 2008-2010. God that sucks real bad. Easiest way to lose everything, an LBO followed by a black swan event within a year or two.

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On 3/17/2020 at 8:18 PM, Surly Bevo said:

Anything dependent on people "at leisure" and or moving freely is at risk.  Airlines, Restaurant Holding Groups, Movie Theaters, Production Companies, Hotel Chains, etc etc.  

Yep.   The restaurant and hotel owners that will escape this are the family owned businesses that either own the real estate outright or have >50% equity in the land.  

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LBO casualty apparently.
Haha fuck the buyers.


You can’t automatically assume PE buyers lose their ass in a bankruptcy. Between “management fees” they charge, asset transfers, and where they end up after bankruptcy, some of these firms are just stealing money.

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Pretty common tactic is to borrow a shit ton of money to buy out a company, cut everything to the fucking bone then dole out a lot of that borrowed money as a "special dividend" to the PE buyers.  Then let it crumble and walk away leaving the people that bought the debt as bagholders.

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On 3/17/2020 at 9:27 PM, Skipper said:

There will be some form of bailout for industries impacted by forced closures no doubt.  Big guys will probably be fine and probably be able to get leverage to gobble up the smaller players.

I think this is true except department stores.

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Pretty common tactic is to borrow a shit ton of money to buy out a company, cut everything to the fucking bone then dole out a lot of that borrowed money as a "special dividend" to the PE buyers.  Then let it crumble and walk away leaving the people that bought the debt as bagholders.

I never understood why the creditors keep falling for this Lucy and the football trick though. Greater fool theory I suppose.

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2 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:


I never understood why the creditors keep falling for this Lucy and the football trick though. Greater fool theory I suppose.

Because the model, which sometimes succeeds, is build up and sell off.  Which can be very lucrative.

 

thats not to say there aren’t bad actor PE firms.  

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3 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:


I never understood why the creditors keep falling for this Lucy and the football trick though. Greater fool theory I suppose.

I guess the debt might pay 0.5% higher than a 10-year treasury so hey... increased returns, what could go wrong?

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Just now, Incredulity said:

Because the model, which sometimes succeeds, is build up and sell off.  Which can be very lucrative.

 

thats not to say there aren’t bad actor PE firms.  

He's not questioning why the PE firms do it.  We are both wondering why anyone would buy the PE firm's shit sandwich.

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7 hours ago, mdmost said:

Neiman Marcus is filing for bankruptcy this week.

Sears and Radio Shack are gonna outlast Nieman Marcus?!

Neiman Marcus Group is preparing to seek bankruptcy protection as soon as this week, becoming the first major U.S. department store operator to succumb to the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, people familiar with the matter said.

The debt-laden Dallas-based company has been left with few options after the pandemic forced it to temporarily shut all 43 of its Neiman Marcus locations, roughly two dozen Last Call stores and its two Bergdorf Goodman stores in New York.

Neiman Marcus is in the final stages of negotiating a loan with its creditors totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, which would sustain some of its operations during bankruptcy proceedings, according to the sources. It has also furloughed many of its roughly 14,000 employees.

The bankruptcy filing could come within days, though the timing could slip, the sources said. Neiman Marcus skipped millions of dollars in debt payments last week, including one that only gave the company a few days to avoid a default.

Neiman Marcus' borrowings total about $4.8 billion, according to credit ratings firm Standard & Poor's. Some of this debt is the legacy of its $6 billion leveraged buyout in 2013 by its owners, private equity firm Ares Management Corp and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB).

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2210CW

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e-scooter usage has really seemed to fallen off. 

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12 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

This year's a Christmas book is going to be lit

Just a series of downgraded bond issuances they've done over the years, and seeing if you want to buy any of them.  To be fair though, if you're willing to completely forego full recourse, you still get a little remote controlled mercedes-benz gull-wing.  

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8 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

How much longer can Uber last?

I was always bearish on them to begin with.  Not profitable and their product is basically a commodity with a race to the bottom on price.  They also have a bad relationship with their work force.  

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12 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

How much longer can Uber last?

Hopefully they do last. The last fucking thing we need is to start taking taxis again. 

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14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I was always bearish on them to begin with.  Not profitable and their product is basically a commodity with a race to the bottom on price.  They also have a bad relationship with their work force.  

They were betting on their model of abusing drivers lasting them till driverless cars took over.  Doesn't look like they'll make it till then.

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TLDR: rideshare is a dead business 


I drove for uber as a side hustle for just under 5 years. To say they have a poor relationship with their workforce is an understatement. It’s all out hatred. I love many aspects of a choose your own hours side hustle that’s only fun money. But the pay, driver support, and general sketchiness of the company makes me happy that I don’t work for them anymore. 

For those of you that don’t know, what the rider pays is in no way connected to what the driver gets anymore. They quote the rider an upfront amount using an algorithm to determine what you are likely to be willing to pay. Then they pay the driver a low wage by the mile and the minute. The difference is what they keep, and it grew to a number that would no longer allow me to work for them. One of my last trips was a girl that was charged $28. My cut was $13....minus gas, taxes, wear and tear. The discrepancy is larger if it’s surge pricing. Lyft pays even less now. 

People always ask why anybody would drive for them. Two types. Type 1 just wants some extra money and probably won’t last long. Type 2 is a full time driver who is desperate. These people basically live in their car cars working around the clock. Driver quality has taken a drastic turn for the worse in the last two years. When McDonald’s pays more than you, it’s what you’re going to get.

Cab companies are scum. Unfortunately rideshare turned into a race to the bottom with both major companies cutting rates time after time. I could see it becoming profitable but I don’t see how it will ever be a big money maker. They have tried so many tricks to get a bigger share of the money and still aren’t profiting shit. 

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7 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I was always bearish on them to begin with.  Not profitable and their product is basically a commodity with a race to the bottom on price.  They also have a bad relationship with their work force.  

Sounds like Amazon 

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Sur La Table rumored to be filing.

Not surprised... though I can’t figure out how in the heck has Pier 1 survived these last 40 years.

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10 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

TLDR: rideshare is a dead business 


I drove for uber as a side hustle for just under 5 years. To say they have a poor relationship with their workforce is an understatement. It’s all out hatred. I love many aspects of a choose your own hours side hustle that’s only fun money. But the pay, driver support, and general sketchiness of the company makes me happy that I don’t work for them anymore. 

For those of you that don’t know, what the rider pays is in no way connected to what the driver gets anymore. They quote the rider an upfront amount using an algorithm to determine what you are likely to be willing to pay. Then they pay the driver a low wage by the mile and the minute. The difference is what they keep, and it grew to a number that would no longer allow me to work for them. One of my last trips was a girl that was charged $28. My cut was $13....minus gas, taxes, wear and tear. The discrepancy is larger if it’s surge pricing. Lyft pays even less now. 

People always ask why anybody would drive for them. Two types. Type 1 just wants some extra money and probably won’t last long. Type 2 is a full time driver who is desperate. These people basically live in their car cars working around the clock. Driver quality has taken a drastic turn for the worse in the last two years. When McDonald’s pays more than you, it’s what you’re going to get.

Cab companies are scum. Unfortunately rideshare turned into a race to the bottom with both major companies cutting rates time after time. I could see it becoming profitable but I don’t see how it will ever be a big money maker. They have tried so many tricks to get a bigger share of the money and still aren’t profiting shit. 

I've never understood how Uber drivers could really ever earn that much in the long term. Sure there are moments to profit but the market will always settle to the bottom with bad drivers and crappy vehicles.  If more revenue is available for drivers in terms of more customers, customers paying more per ride, or a higher % given to the driver; it will still  result in more drivers. Drivers end up in the same spot eventually.

The idea of a taxi medallion could be interesting for Uber and Lyft. It can create an upper limit of drivers available to allow the drivers to get better results. Perhaps the medallion wouldn't have to be a lifetime one like taxis have in NYC but shorter terms auctions. But perhaps this is already occurring but instead of paying $ for the medallion, the drivers are paying with their time.

It's surprising that some enterprising person hasn't created some open source Uber system for extremely minimal fees for the upkeep and the rest go to the driver. Of course, there is a problem of safety and regulations in which that system would struggle to maintain.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I've never understood how Uber drivers could really ever earn that much in the long term. Sure there are moments to profit but the market will always settle to the bottom with bad drivers and crappy vehicles.  If more revenue is available for drivers in terms of more customers, customers paying more per ride, or a higher % given to the driver; it will still  result in more drivers. Drivers end up in the same spot eventually.

The idea of a taxi medallion could be interesting for Uber and Lyft. It can create an upper limit of drivers available to allow the drivers to get better results. Perhaps the medallion wouldn't have to be a lifetime one like taxis have in NYC but shorter terms auctions. But perhaps this is already occurring but instead of paying $ for the medallion, the drivers are paying with their time.

It's surprising that some enterprising person hasn't created some open source Uber system for extremely minimal fees for the upkeep and the rest go to the driver. Of course, there is a problem of safety and regulations in which that system would struggle to maintain.

 

 

Your first paragraph is spot on. It used to be more profitable, but that attracted more drivers and now there is a glut of drivers willing to drive for nothing. It’s an ok part time gig if you only drive the busiest hours.

The medallion idea goes against everything uber and lyft are doing. They want the market flooded with the cheapest labor possible. When I was still driving, the market was completely over saturated and they were constantly running ads for more drivers.

Ride Austin basically tried to create that system where the driver got most of the money and with minimal fees. People used uber and lyft. I don’t see any new companies entering the market because it would just further the competition and the race to the bottom. Undercut the competition at your own expense is the name of the game and uber has billions from the saudis coming in to prop them up. Good luck beating that.

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