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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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By my math, Trump can get another 5000 votes from the small red counties in AZ, Biden might get 2-3000 from Pima, and then it will just be Maricopa. Biden will have a roughly 90000 vote lead at that point. If Biden can just hang on to Maricopa he will win. Regardless of presidential, Mark Kelly will win.

 

EDIT: forgot about Navajo county, that should be another 2-3000 votes for Biden.

Edited by Calihorn
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9 minutes ago, Dr. Teeth said:

And think we are going to be rich one day.

Exactly.  I’ll repeat the same line from last night.

People keep voting against their self interest.  And instead vote for where they want them or their kids to be one day.  Hell I was guilty of this in the past too.  

It’s bizarre and I don’t get it, but it keeps happening.  We can’t blame it all on stupidity or racism.  The hope they’re on top laughing at everyone tomorrow is keeping many of those people in the shitter today.  

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11 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

That door was opened in 1932.  Social Security and Veteran's Affairs office out front should have told you.

 

In all seriousness, your post is rooted in the political and historical ignorance that has led to the Nation no longer being a world-leader.  Just breathtakingly wrong.

The sarcasmometer...it has an on-off switch you need to hit.

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11 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

That door was opened in 1932.  Social Security and Veteran's Affairs office out front should have told you.

 

In all seriousness, your post is rooted in the political and historical ignorance that has led to the Nation no longer being a world-leader.  Just breathtakingly wrong.

I was quoting texags brah. I'm a history teacher. You definitely do not need to explain anything to me.

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13 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Went down a bit of a rabbit hole from that "counterpoint" Vice article. This seems pretty odd, but it suggests 90%+ of new voters went for Trump. Spot checked a few counties and his numbers were accurate. 

 

 

I was thinking about this last night. Just by looking at the raw R/D/Other votes that were tallied in various states prior to last night, Trump would have to have 70+% of the Other category in most instances to close the gap. That means first time/no affiliation voters voted way outside of the overall national popular vote trend. I'm no stat guru like some posters, looking at Huckleberry, but that seems extremely strange to me.

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48 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trump ran one of the worst campaigns imaginable and he’s still competitive.  It’s all so very disappointing how racist and ignorant America is.

It's not like Biden ran a great one...... the whole almost virtual thing (even in a pandemic), not a lot of door knocking or grass roots organizing for targeted local events proved to hurt the down the ballot nominees and disengage parts of the electorate the Dems really needed.  I get the balancing act between responsible engagement amidst COVID vs still getting out and doing some traditional campaigning was going to be challenging as fuck and they seemed to get after it in October, but it was obvious the Trumpkins were engaged and enraged by his tax payer funded rallies.  We also have to remember, Biden's not a great candidate either.  I think it's telling that Trump is one of the worst presidents imaginable and still made this thing close.  Abject lying has now proven to work and the press especially and media overall need changes to ensure shit like isn't allowed again.  

 

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While the polling errors are all over the place.....it sure looks like one of the biggest errors was PA?  We're still waiting on a lot of votes....but that margin is strong for Trump.  Even if by some miracle Biden pulled off a narrow win there, remember the polls showing it as +4 or 5 for Biden?  

We're clearly seeing a social shift (cough, cults behave differently than ordinary political voters) that seriously expands the MOE for polling -- seems like the MOE is something like 5%, which is freaking big.

There is no joy in Mudville.  Whoever wins this, it will be by the tiniest of EV margins.  We are going to continue to be at each other's throats for 4 years, further destroying our body politic and any shot we have at being a remotely united country and community.

Also, the whisky from last night is really making my farts stink.  Not necessarily relevant, just thought I'd share.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

While the polling errors are all over the place.....it sure looks like one of the biggest errors was PA?  We're still waiting on a lot of votes....but that margin is strong for Trump.  Even if by some miracle Biden pulled off a narrow win there, remember the polls showing it as +4 or 5 for Biden?  

We're clearly seeing a social shift (cough, cults behave differently than ordinary political voters) that seriously expands the MOE for polling -- seems like the MOE is something like 5%, which is freaking big.

There is no joy in Mudville.  Whoever wins this, it will be by the tiniest of EV margins.  We are going to continue to be at each other's throats for 4 years, further destroying our body politic and any shot we have at being a remotely united country and community.

Also, the whisky from last night is really making my farts stink.  Not necessarily relevant, just thought I'd share.

May have been the fat dragon. I've been on the shitter thrice already. 

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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m proud to be an American today and I have not felt that in a LONG ass time.  

I mean, at best I'm glad that I was wrong that there weren't enough decent humans in America to save the country, but there's still 47% shitheels. We have a long way to go.

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7 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Exactly.  I’ll repeat the same line from last night.

People keep voting against their self interest.  And instead vote for where they want them or their kids to be one day.  Hell I was guilty of this in the past too.  

It’s bizarre and I don’t get it, but it keeps happening.  We can’t blame it all on stupidity or racism.  The hope they’re on top laughing at everyone tomorrow is keeping many of those people in the shitter today.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

It's not like Biden ran a great one...... the whole almost virtual thing (even in a pandemic), not a lot of door knocking or grass roots organizing for targeted local events proved to hurt the down the ballot nominees and disengage parts of the electorate the Dems really needed.  I get the balancing act between responsible engagement amidst COVID vs still getting out and doing some traditional campaigning was going to be challenging as fuck and they seemed to get after it in October, but it was obvious the Trumpkins were engaged and enraged by his tax payer funded rallies.  We also have to remember, Biden's not a great candidate either.  I think it's telling that Trump is one of the worst presidents imaginable and still made this thing close.  Abject lying has now proven to work and the press especially and media overall need changes to ensure shit like isn't allowed again.  

 

He could have had a masked protest instead of a rally.  That would have been both safe and socially responsible.   

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m proud to be an American today and I have not felt that in a LONG ass time.  
 

Im sure there were recent times I should have been proud, but this orange cloud hanging over us all didn’t allow me to feel even an ounce of pride.  

Not back to proud, by a long shot.  Had it been a blue wave/electoral landslide, my pride in being an American would be strengthening.  As it is, I'm still embarrassed.  45% of our country saw trump and his complete failures over the last 4 years and still thought he was the best choice.

We are racist, stupid and ignorant.   Not a lot to be proud of, imo. 

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1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Not back to proud, by a long shot.  Had it been a blue wave/electoral landslide, my pride in being an American would be strengthening.  As it is, I'm still embarrassed.  45% of our country saw trump and his complete failures over the last 4 years and still thought he was the best choice.

We are racist, stupid and ignorant.   Not a lot to be proud of, imo. 

Add "tribalistic/sports minded."

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

While the polling errors are all over the place.....it sure looks like one of the biggest errors was PA?  We're still waiting on a lot of votes....but that margin is strong for Trump.  Even if by some miracle Biden pulled off a narrow win there, remember the polls showing it as +4 or 5 for Biden?  

We're clearly seeing a social shift (cough, cults behave differently than ordinary political voters) that seriously expands the MOE for polling -- seems like the MOE is something like 5%, which is freaking big.

There is no joy in Mudville.  Whoever wins this, it will be by the tiniest of EV margins.  We are going to continue to be at each other's throats for 4 years, further destroying our body politic and any shot we have at being a remotely united country and community.

Also, the whisky from last night is really making my farts stink.  Not necessarily relevant, just thought I'd share.

I'm just ecstatic that a Biden likely win gives at worst a 4 year stalemate and 4 year window for us to get off this sinking ship. Already making plans to amusingly browse over the shit show election 4 years from now from far far away when the idiots come out and elect the next racist inept thief out of the republican party. 

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The AP is still calling AZ for Biden

https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-race-calls-0b1988605f9101f4b799fc63b01e0090

Quote

WHY AP CALLED ARIZONA FOR BIDEN:

The Associated Press has declared Democrat Joe Biden the winner in Arizona, flipping a longtime GOP state that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

The AP called the race at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up.

With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.

Arizona has a long political history of voting Republican. It’s the home state of Barry Goldwater, a five-term, conservative senator who was the Republican nominee for president in 1964. John McCain, the party’s 2008 presidential nominee, represented the state in Congress from 1983 until his 2018 death.

But changing demographics, including a fast-growing Latino population and a boom of new residents — some fleeing the skyrocketing cost of living in neighboring California — have made the state friendlier to Democrats.

Many of the gains have been driven by the shifting politics of Maricopa County, which is home to Phoenix and its suburbs. That’s where Biden sealed his victory. Maricopa County accounts for 60% of the state’s vote, and Biden ran up huge margins there.

In 2016, Trump carried the county by 4 percentage points, which helped propel him to a win. But two years later, Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema flipped the seat from Republican control by winning the county by 5 points.

When the AP called the race for Biden, he was leading there by 9 percentage points.

Biden flipping Arizona is a sign of Democrats’ ascendant influence in the state.

In 2018, Sinema became the first Democrat in three decades to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona. Democrats also won three statewide offices and five of nine congressional seats and made gains in the state legislature that year.

In 2016, voters ousted Republican Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County’s hardline sheriff, who built a national profile on his harsh treatment of immigrants.

 

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1 minute ago, Wanker Bob said:

I'm just ecstatic that a Biden likely win gives at worst a 4 year stalemate and 4 year window for us to get off this sinking ship. Already making plans to amusingly browse over the shit show election 4 years from now from far far away when the idiots come out and elect the next racist inept thief out of the republican party. 

Do you want a husband? We're going to jolly old England, right mate? 

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1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

He could have had a masked protest instead of a rally.  That would have been both safe and socially responsible.   

He could have.... but let's also realize that Joe Biden is in the highest risk band of COVID.  Another huge downside of his candidacy and there needed to be an effort to protect his health.  They waited on the longer side to name a veep who could campaign, they tried to work virtually for most of it but the virtual engagement world, while mandatory in some spaces, grew tired for tons and tons of people.  The percentage of young black men and latino men are gut punches to the Dems.  Latinos have long been an ignored voting bloc because well they aren't mobilized well, but those are huge, huge signs of problems for generations.  Dems better hope this was a one off with Trump appealing to them and not a foundational flip.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean, at best I'm glad that I was wrong that there weren't enough decent humans in America to save the country, but there's still 47% shitheels. We have a long way to go.

I agree.  Totally do.  But I thought it was even worse.  We must purge those views.  Trump gave them a safe haven.  No more.  It’s gone.  Have those views and the rest of us can ostracize and punish you by firing you etc.  

Tough shit.  It’s ‘play stupid games, win stupid prizes’.  Not ‘play stupid games, end up POTUS’.  

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Just now, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Do you want a husband? We're going to jolly old England, right mate? 

England's not far behind the US. Lots of dumbasses pushing for things that will harm them. Maybe not US levels yet but trending that way. 

The wife, niece, and I probably head to either the BVI or some other place with a strong ex pat community and gives me the ability to easily work remotely. 

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