Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
On 10/12/2025 at 3:03 PM, LTtxfan said:

Wonder if Marcus Freeman would consider the Penn State job???

Freeman might be their likely target -- Notre Dame is not necessarily a better job since NIL added to CFB.

 

  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted

Apparently Franklin tried to get a contract extension this past summer. With 6 years left on a 10 year contract. Thought he deserved it after making it to the semifinals last year. 

  • Haha 1
Posted

I was hoping they’d hire Brady as OC when they fired Yurcich since he was a GA at Penn state early in Franklin’s tenure, but he was very shortly thereafter made OC in Buffalo. 

Seems like he’s an NFL guy and a good bet for an NFL head coach job.

I do wonder what if any relationship he and Pegula have. 

Posted

James Franklin as much as he’s failed was literally a play from playing in the National Championship last year.  I’m no James Franklin apologist but that’s pretty crazy he’s fired already.  

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted

Dude has 14 ranked wins in 3+ seasons so far

And I think his signature win is either #4 Clemson in year 1 or #2 Georgia last year.  #4 Penn State was just bigger because it was the semifinals, but he got a top 5 win in year 1 against a CFP dominant Clemson squad and took out a 2-time winner in Georgia in the playoffs last year. 

Not sure you can call beating James Franklin a "signature win" because he's such a choker against top 10 teams 

 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

racist comedy central GIF

Also stupid

James Franklin against top 25 teams - 15-28 at PSU
Marcus Freeman - 14-7

James Franklin fucking wishes. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Drool 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

I am not understanding the logic -- wouldn't you want to hire the guy that beat your last coach? 

I don't understand the logic in leaving ND for PSU. 

ND has:

National alumni base of rich Catholics
Their own special TV deal
Easiest path to the playoffs - 10-2/9-3 gonna get you in every year, without having to face Oregon/Ohio State/Indiana in your own conference and no CCG to worry about
Top 5 program in terms of financial value

They'll never get a bye, but they don't play a CCG, so it's a wash

I'd stay at ND, easily - ignoring my hatred for Pedo State, if I was Freeman, I wouldn't leave for any program but Ohio State.  Because they just keep chugging along being elite. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I don't understand the logic in leaving ND for PSU. 

ND has:

National alumni base of rich Catholics
Their own special TV deal
Easiest path to the playoffs - 10-2/9-3 gonna get you in every year, without having to face Oregon/Ohio State/Indiana in your own conference and no CCG to worry about
Top 5 program in terms of financial value

They'll never get a bye, but they don't play a CCG, so it's a wash

I'd stay at ND, easily - ignoring my hatred for Pedo State, if I was Freeman, I wouldn't leave for any program but Ohio State.  Because they just keep chugging along being elite. 

The main plus Penn St has is I believe they have a lower academic standard for athletes than Notre Dame does.

Posted
7 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The main plus Penn St has is I believe they have a lower academic standard for athletes than Notre Dame does.

It certainly helps with HS recruiting but probably doesn't matter with the transfer portal. 

Anyway here's an article that talks about how Penn State crumbled.

tl;dr version - they were tight as a drum coming into the season due to expectations and just imploded after the Oregon loss. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46607047/college-football-james-franklin-departure-penn-state

Posted
13 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The main plus Penn St has is I believe they have a lower academic standard for athletes than Notre Dame does.

And the cult members don't mind the, ahem, off-the-field issues.

Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I don't understand the logic in leaving ND for PSU. 

ND has:

National alumni base of rich Catholics
Their own special TV deal
Easiest path to the playoffs - 10-2/9-3 gonna get you in every year, without having to face Oregon/Ohio State/Indiana in your own conference and no CCG to worry about
Top 5 program in terms of financial value

They'll never get a bye, but they don't play a CCG, so it's a wash

I'd stay at ND, easily - ignoring my hatred for Pedo State, if I was Freeman, I wouldn't leave for any program but Ohio State.  Because they just keep chugging along being elite. 

I don't understand how PSU would go after one of the elite coaches. They pay Franklin's buyout, then they would go buyout another elite coach for betwen $30-50 million, then they would hire that coach at a premium contract of 10+ mil per year for x years plus have to pony up big time for staff, and THEN he will want NIL assurances. You are talking about a $150 Million proposition. That is bananas. 

The most likely scenario is either Rhule or Campbell. If Rhule leaves voluntarily, the buyout is $5 million. If Campbell takes another P4 coaching job, his buyout is $2 million

Posted
3 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I don't understand how PSU would go after one of the elite coaches. They pay Franklin's buyout, then they would go buyout another elite coach for betwen $30-50 million, then they would hire that coach at a premium contract of 10+ mil per year for x years plus have to pony up big time for staff, and THEN he will want NIL assurances. You are talking about a $150 Million proposition. That is bananas. 

The most likely scenario is either Rhule or Campbell. If Rhule leaves voluntarily, the buyout is $5 million. If Campbell takes another P4 coaching job, his buyout is $2 million

They’re paying 800m for a stadium upgrade.  They got money

Posted
16 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I don't understand how PSU would go after one of the elite coaches. They pay Franklin's buyout, then they would go buyout another elite coach for betwen $30-50 million, then they would hire that coach at a premium contract of 10+ mil per year for x years plus have to pony up big time for staff, and THEN he will want NIL assurances. You are talking about a $150 Million proposition. That is bananas. 

The most likely scenario is either Rhule or Campbell. If Rhule leaves voluntarily, the buyout is $5 million. If Campbell takes another P4 coaching job, his buyout is $2 million

Pretty sure that’s the norm for high profile coaching changes going forward. If a school can fund $30M - $40M annual roster payroll, coaches will be getting huge contracts with huge buyouts. Some will fail and get fired/paid buyout money. 

Posted
Not like I know either guy, but James Franklin comes across as a genuine piece of shit that you would hate to have to spend any time with, whereas Marcus Freeman seems like such a good guy that he can make otherwise sensible people actually consider rooting for Notre Dame just a tiny bit.

I hear ya. But cough cough, verp!

Now after swallowing that vomit that just came up and to just put a finer point on this,
FUCK OU, ND, Miami, PSU, NU, 8&4, always and forever!
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dude has 14 ranked wins in 3+ seasons so far

And I think his signature win is either #4 Clemson in year 1 or #2 Georgia last year.  #4 Penn State was just bigger because it was the semifinals, but he got a top 5 win in year 1 against a CFP dominant Clemson squad and took out a 2-time winner in Georgia in the playoffs last year. 

Not sure you can call beating James Franklin a "signature win" because he's such a choker against top 10 teams 

 

Announcing you are going after a coach is the best way to not get him. Freeman then has all the leverage and ND is ready to address it. 

Posted
On 10/14/2025 at 9:33 AM, BRLA said:

So how does that duty to mitigate work legally if Franklin either flat out refuses to look for a new job, or sends in an application once every 6 months to Starbucks - does that cancel his buyout?

Cancel, no, but a court might impute an income offset if he is proven to be intentionally un- or under-employed.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
7 hours ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

They’re paying 800m for a stadium upgrade.  They got money

Do you think its more likely they have $800M in a cookie jar in the athletic dept snack room, or do you think they used bonds which they have to repay out of athletic department revenue? If its the latter, that $100M out the door for this coaching change further limits their financial flexibility. I guess we all know how PSU will vote on that $2B equity deal. 

Posted

Franklin getting fired was funny.  That said, I guess I don't give a shit about who that trash institution hires as a head coach.  Yeah, Elko would be funny, but otherwise, who gives a fuck?  

  • Hook 'Em 7
Posted

My list in no order:

Fran Brown- probably option 5 but could be a home run as he would be a recruiting witch. Knows the AD.

Hartline - wants to be a head coach. Doubt he wants anything less than a Penn St level job. 

Elko - checks off a lot of boxes. Recruiting,  connections to the region,  turn a program around quickly,  offense is important to him. Sure he has all the money in the world at his disposal and he's in the mighty SEC. Why on earth would he leave that sleeping giant? No coach has ever left college station for another job in any sport there... ever. 

Matt Rhule - feels like a 4th best option at this point. Hasn't beaten a ranked team since 2016? Connections are all he has. 

Matt Campbell - fan base might revolt if he's the guy. It won't drop the floor and the ceiling will probably stay the same. Might win a big game but could lose the occasional game to MSU or Purdue. 

If Satterfield is in serious consideration, they are in a bad spot. 

Drink might a few options. Not impressed by him though. He's fine but I don't believe he's gonna take Penn st to a championship.

Freeman? Haha nice try.  Could it happen? Sure.  Would it? No.

I'll throw out Jedd. He's not one to stay in a place long and if he misses out on Florida,  he might convince PSU to give him a run. 

Schumann could get a look as a Kirby protege a la Lanning. 

If Brent Key is willing to leave his alma mater, then he could be the better coach than most on this list. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Franklin getting fired was funny.  That said, I guess I don't give a shit about who that trash institution hires as a head coach.  Yeah, Elko would be funny, but otherwise, who gives a fuck?  

This sums up my attitude perfectly. 

Posted
16 hours ago, Butch Had Not said:

Announcing you are going after a coach is the best way to not get him. Freeman then has all the leverage and ND is ready to address it. 

they didn't announce it.  they aren't and never were going after Freeman.  It's cover for when they hire rhule.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
15 hours ago, Butch Had Not said:

My list in no order:

Fran Brown- probably option 5 but could be a home run as he would be a recruiting witch. Knows the AD.

Hartline - wants to be a head coach. Doubt he wants anything less than a Penn St level job. 

Elko - checks off a lot of boxes. Recruiting,  connections to the region,  turn a program around quickly,  offense is important to him. Sure he has all the money in the world at his disposal and he's in the mighty SEC. Why on earth would he leave that sleeping giant? No coach has ever left college station for another job in any sport there... ever. 

Matt Rhule - feels like a 4th best option at this point. Hasn't beaten a ranked team since 2016? Connections are all he has. 

Matt Campbell - fan base might revolt if he's the guy. It won't drop the floor and the ceiling will probably stay the same. Might win a big game but could lose the occasional game to MSU or Purdue. 

If Satterfield is in serious consideration, they are in a bad spot. 

Drink might a few options. Not impressed by him though. He's fine but I don't believe he's gonna take Penn st to a championship.

Freeman? Haha nice try.  Could it happen? Sure.  Would it? No.

I'll throw out Jedd. He's not one to stay in a place long and if he misses out on Florida,  he might convince PSU to give him a run. 

Schumann could get a look as a Kirby protege a la Lanning. 

If Brent Key is willing to leave his alma mater, then he could be the better coach than most on this list. 

 

Brent Key wasn’t willing to leave his alma mater but he’s still available for the job. 

Posted

Rhule's O-line killing nebraska tonight.

PJ Fleck is "Rowing the Damn Boat" all over CORN 24-6 late 4th qtr.

Wonder if p-state adds Fleck to their candidate list??? 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Rhule's O-line killing nebraska tonight.

PJ Fleck is "Rowing the Damn Boat" all over CORN 24-6 late 4th qtr.

Wonder if p-state adds Fleck to their candidate list??? 

Definitely not a showing that will put PSU fans at ease. 9 sacks allowed, 3/11 on third down, and 36 total rushing yards. Ouch

Posted (edited)

There is a line from the The Athletic  article about Franklin's tenure that pretty much explains why Penn State deserves only misery.

Quote

 

When Franklin took over in 2014, the school was still reeling from the tumultuous end of the Joe Paterno era and the Jerry Sandusky child-sex abuse scandal. And despite his good relationships with players and many within the school, other people — like some donors and others affiliated with the school — never took to Franklin, even after a 2016 Big Ten championship, which still stands as the high point of his time in Happy Valley.

“Any success James had was seen as a slight to the Paterno legacy,” a former Penn State administrator said of a portion of Franklin’s detractors.

 

I suspect that institution is even more cultish than we suspect from the outside.

Edited by naija
Posted
6 hours ago, campcrunk said:

Definitely not a showing that will put PSU fans at ease. 9 sacks allowed, 3/11 on third down, and 36 total rushing yards. Ouch

They should offer PJ Fleck. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Bruce Feldman: At Penn State, James Franklin was standing on the edge of a cliff for years. Here’s why

Quote

The burden of chasing a breakthrough became too much for Penn State to bear. “This is not a three-game thing,” Penn State athletic director Patrick Kraft emphasized Monday, one day after firing head coach James Franklin amid a stunning three-game losing streak. “This is really diving into where we are as a program, the trajectory of the program.”

Penn State football was finally all in, ready and willing to spend at the top of the market for players, facilities and coaches. But tired of coming up short against the best of the best, Kraft and Penn State leadership decided the program had gone as far as it could with Franklin and could not tolerate even the slightest step back. Still, the timing of it all — and the time in the calendar — was stunning.

On an electric and eagerly anticipated Saturday night last month in Happy Valley — with most of a raucous White Out crowd of 111,015 desperately urging them on — quarterback Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions offense trotted onto the field with a chance to finally deliver Franklin and Penn State fans a cathartic signature victory. Instead, Allar threw a game-ending interception in overtime, and then-No. 6 Oregon won 30-24.

That reversal of fortune triggered a spiral. Penn State lost as a three-touchdown favorite both at UCLA and vs. Northwestern. The loss to Northwestern ended Allar’s season by injury and Franklin’s 11 1/2-season tenure. There were no glaring signs that Franklin had lost the locker room. The players wanted to win for him. Maybe a little too much.

Thin-skinned and rabbit-eared at times when dealing with fans and media, Franklin seemed to be well-respected by the people that matter most at Penn State, even until the end. But his team, seemingly built to make a serious run at the school’s first national championship since 1986, turned out to be the most fragile title contender in the country, unable to withstand a crisis.

With 20-20 hindsight, it’s easy to spot why Penn State, which opened the season ranked No. 2, was overhyped. The Nittany Lions were replacing two All-Americans, counting on their quarterback to become the first under Franklin to ascend to stardom and assuming the head coach’s new high-priced defensive coordinator would make a seamless transition — even though history suggested that was not usually the case.

The loss to Oregon felt all too familiar, leading to more of the same questions that have dogged Franklin in recent years: Why does this team, and especially this offense, always seem to play tight when the lights are shining brightest?

The Athletic spoke with eight people who have worked with Franklin in recent years and others close to Penn State. They were granted anonymity to provide candid insight about Franklin and Penn State. Multiple calls and messages to Franklin were not returned. A former Penn State assistant coach said the consistency in approach that helped make Franklin’s teams successful overall might have been keeping the Nittany Lions from leveling up to the elite programs.

“We probably need to change something to get over the top. And what if we change this, and that’s the thing that takes away the fact that we were winning 10 games a year?” that former assistant said. “Those are the things coaches obsess over. And I think that was part of the issue there. How do we change when we’re having such success?”

What was less obvious was how close to the cliff Franklin was at Penn State, even after three consecutive double-digit-win seasons and an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals in January. Within a few days of losing 27-24 to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinals, many of Penn State’s top players announced they would join Allar in returning to Happy Valley to make another run at a title.

It felt similar to the “unfinished business” moves that had taken place in the previous two years at Michigan and then Ohio State, where upperclassmen held off on the NFL for one final championship run. Penn State’s name, image and likeness collective was finally operating at a level to help make that possible for Franklin, who was unrelenting in his efforts to push the school to keep up with its competition. If he was expected to beat the Buckeyes and Wolverines, he demanded Penn State invest like them.

The way-too-early top 25s jumped on Penn State as a top two or three team heading into 2025 while Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Oregon retooled their loaded rosters. Franklin further enhanced the good vibes with another headline-grabbing coordinator hire while hoping that another year of experience for Allar and a new set of receivers from the transfer portal would fix issues that have plagued Penn State for several years.

Franklin swiped defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from the champion Buckeyes, making him the first $3 million assistant coach in college football. Franklin spoke glowingly before the season about how, in his early years at Penn State, the school would not have stepped up financially as it did to get Knowles and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who was lured away from Kansas after the 2023 season with a four-year deal worth more than $7 million.

A former staffer at Penn State said Franklin got too caught up in hiring hot-commodity coordinators. “He went for glorified hires. Things that look good (in the media),” the former staffer said.

Kotelnicki helped Lance Leipold turn around a moribund Kansas program with a creative offense, built around a mobile quarterback. Whether that offense was best suited to get the most out of Allar is debatable. His scheme, heavy on shifts, motions and messing with defenders’ discipline, worked well in 2024 with versatile tight end Tyler Warren as the centerpiece and backup quarterback Beau Pribula (who’s now starting at Missouri) used as a weapon in the ground game off the bench.

After averaging 6.54 yards per play last year (14th in the nation), the Nittany Lions are down to 5.97 (tied for 52nd). Even against early cupcakes Nevada, FIU and Villanova, Penn State’s offense looked glitchy, and Allar’s development stalled.

Allar was the first five-star quarterback recruited to Penn State by Franklin. At 6 feet 5 and 230 pounds, Allar has all the traits of an NFL quarterback. He was good as a sophomore starter in 2023 and better in 2024, even with some lackluster performances against the toughest opponents. Another step forward could have put him in contention to be one of the first players drafted in 2026. That wasn’t happening. Then, as if things weren’t bad enough, Allar was carted off the field Saturday night after suffering a season-ending leg injury.

Allar’s development was crucial to Penn State’s present and its future. Penn State needed to establish that it was a program where blue-chip quarterbacks could become first-round draft picks. Instead, Allar has drawn comparisons to Christian Hackenberg, the highly touted quarterback Franklin inherited from Bill O’Brien when he first got to Penn State in 2014. Hackenberg regressed under Franklin after a promising freshman year, was drafted in the second round by the Jets, but never played a down in a regular-season NFL game.

“Quarterback play has been a problem most of the time James has been there,” a second former staffer said. Unlike many offensive coordinators, Kotelnicki does not coach quarterbacks. He is a former offensive line coach. Former Maryland quarterback Danny O’Brien has worked his way from analyst to graduate assistant to QB coach over five years at Penn State and is close with Allar.

“If he were at Ohio State, he’d probably win the Heisman Trophy,” a second former Penn State assistant said. “He has it all. Nobody works harder than that kid. My heart breaks for that kid.” Some believe the quarterback issue was a failure in evaluation rather than development with Allar. “I think Drew was the wrong horse. I think he misses reads and gets nervous,” a third former Franklin staffer said.

Going hand in hand with quarterback development questions under Franklin is Penn State’s failure to recruit and develop a top-end wide receiver since Jahan Dotson left the program after the 2021 season. Dotson is the last Penn State wide receiver to have a 1,000-yard receiving season.

After a wide receiver failed to catch a single pass in the CFP loss to Notre Dame, Franklin rebuilt the corps through the portal, bringing in Devonte Ross from Troy, Trebor Pena from Syracuse and Kyron Hudson from USC. Pena’s team-leading 20 receptions rank 28th in the Big Ten. Ross’ team-best 240 yards receiving are 35th. It was notable when Kraft said the next Penn State coach needed to “attack the transfer portal” and “develop at the highest level.”

On the defensive side, Knowles is respected among coaches, with an overall good track record that goes back to stints at Duke and Oklahoma State. But his multiple schemes tend to start clicking in Year 2, when players get acclimated to them and he better understands the talent he has to work with. “There was a distinct difference in what they did schematically in year two (at Ohio State) than in year one,” the first former Penn State assistant coach said of Knowles.

The defense failed to get critical stops late in the losses to Oregon, UCLA and Northwestern. Penn State is also significantly worse on third down and in the red zone this year than last when Tom Allen, who left for Clemson, was defensive coordinator. Last year’s Penn State team was without a doubt one of the best six or seven in the country. The Nittany Lions were also not all that far away from missing out on the first 12-team College Football Playoff.

They won an overtime game against USC and escaped a road game at Minnesota with a one-point victory. The Playoff bracket provided Penn State a fortuitous draw with SMU and Boise State in the first two rounds, but the Nittany Lions were also just a play or two away from beating Notre Dame.

It made sense that the core of that team would again contend for a CFP spot in 2025, but the assessment underestimated who wasn’t coming back for Penn State. All-America pass rusher Abdul Carter skipped his senior season and went No. 3 in the NFL Draft to the New York Giants. Warren, coming off a record-breaking season at Penn State, was selected 14th by Indianapolis. “You lost dudes. You lost leadership,” the second former assistant coach said.

The assumption that the remaining players — especially Allar — would improve to fill the superstar void was wrong. Penn State rolled into the season with championship aspirations, but even when it was supposed to be easy, it wasn’t. The Nittany Lions got booed at halftime against FIU, leading 10-0, and had their fans uneasy while methodically pulling away from Villanova. 

None of that would have mattered if Franklin and the Nittany Lions had beaten Oregon. When Penn State yet again failed to break through in the big game — dropping Franklin’s record to 4-21 against top-10 teams —  another round of being asked to explain what went wrong and hearing the student section chant “Fi-re Frank-lin,” seemed to be an increasing burden on the players. Still, people who know Franklin and Penn State don’t believe he lost the team after dropping to Oregon.

“I know I’ve been through this before, and we just got to look at the film and grow,” defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton said that night. “But it’s tough for me and everybody else in this program. We put so much into it year-round so that when you don’t win, it’s like, what did you do that for?”

When one loss turned into two a week later in a less-than-half-empty Rose Bowl against UCLA, new questions emerged: Where did the disruptive defense Penn State had the past three years go? Why is the two-headed monster at tailback suddenly a one-man show with Kaytron Allen outplaying the struggling Nick Singleton — and why haven’t the coaches adjusted the playing time accordingly?

The first former assistant said that he did not see a lack of effort when he watched Penn State play UCLA and Northwestern. But even if a No. 2 preseason ranking was aggressive for the Nittany Lions, they never should have lost consecutive games as a 20-plus-point favorite.

“We have to get our grittiness back, our toughness, our swag, and most importantly, we have to go have fun, enjoy playing the game of football,” interim coach Terry Smith said. “We all failed coach Franklin,” center Nick Dawkins told reporters Wednesday. “That’s why he’s not here. We failed him. So we have to take ownership of that and, as we move forward, we have to correct it.”

“I think the players like James,” a former staffer said. “Most of them do, but he had been there so long, and he had pissed some people off there.”

When Franklin took over in 2014, the school was still reeling from the tumultuous end of the Joe Paterno era and the Jerry Sandusky child-sex abuse scandal. And despite his good relationships with players and many within the school, other people — like some donors and others affiliated with the school — never took to Franklin, even after a 2016 Big Ten championship, which still stands as the high point of his time in Happy Valley.

“Any success James had was seen as a slight to the Paterno legacy,” a former Penn State administrator said of a portion of Franklin’s detractors. And so Penn State played like a team weighed down by lofty expectations and the pressure on Franklin to validate a Hall-of-Fame-worthy career. Fans had grown weary of the same old thing, too. Usually very good, but always behind the best.

Kraft believed in Franklin and constantly defended him, but many were ready to bail if the coach couldn’t fulfill the promise of this year’s team. Kraft fought to give Franklin everything he wanted, no matter the cost. Those who doubted Franklin and were tired of his complaints about the lack of investment by the school could now say, “What more do you need?”

On Saturday at home, after losing to Northwestern, all hope was lost. It became apparent that it really was never going to get better under Franklin, and not even a $45 million contract buyout could save him. “Anything this significant just doesn’t come on a whim,” Kraft said. “You have to have scenarios, and we do. How is this going to go? What if this happened? But looking at where the program was and where it is and where we want to be as a program, I just felt there was no other course.”

David Ubben: Penn State fired a winning coach to find a great one. What does history say about that decision?

Quote

Penn State is firing a good coach to go hunt for a great one. James Franklin was in the national semifinals last season. He’d won 34 games in his last three seasons. But after an overtime loss to Oregon and two shocking losses to UCLA and Northwestern, he’s gone. The frustration at his inability to take Penn State to the sport’s highest heights outweighed the appreciation for making the Nittany Lions one of the sport’s most consistent programs.

It was understandable after his best roster flopped spectacularly in Year 12, bringing about more doubt than ever that he could bring a national championship to Happy Valley. But there’s an inherent risk in making a change. Whoever replaces him will almost certainly have a less accomplished resume. They might take the program to new heights. But they might also take it back down into even more maddening valleys.

The history of programs firing good coaches to find great ones is … dubious. In 2021, I researched this trend and found that from 2011-2021, 20 programs did what Penn State just did. Only four made a leap. Eight saw their programs get worse. And eight paid big buyouts and big salaries to hire a new coach and staff for almost identical results.

Since 2021, has that changed? Nope. Nine programs have fired winning coaches in that span. Only one — Sonny Dykes at TCU — made meaningful progress in the program, but followed his national title appearance in Year 1 with a losing season. Four programs got worse. And four programs have made almost no progress. Be careful what you wish for, Nittany Lions. It can get worse. And the odds say it will.

Made the leap

TCU: Gary Patterson for Sonny Dykes in 2021

Patterson built TCU into what it became and won the Horned Frogs a place in the Big 12 in 2012. He won the league in 2014 and won 11 games on two more occasions after jumping from the Mountain West. But from 2018-2021, the Horned Frogs didn’t win more than seven games. TCU fired Patterson in the middle of 2021 and turned to Sonny Dykes. A season later, the Horned Frogs were playing for a national title, and Dykes won National Coach of the Year honors. TCU went 5-7 a season later but rebounded with a nine-win season in Year 3. This year, the Horned Frogs are 4-2. The results haven’t been markedly different overall from Patterson, but playing for a national title the season after getting rid of a longstanding legend is what teams dream of doing.

Similar results

USC: Clay Helton for Lincoln Riley in 2021

Helton isn’t remembered fondly after spending nearly his entire tenure on the hot seat, but he won a Pac-12 title and a Rose Bowl. He had just one losing season and was 14-7 in his final 21 games before being fired after a home loss to Stanford. Stealing Riley away from Oklahoma after four Playoff appearances in his first four seasons was a huge win on paper, but other than Caleb Williams’ Heisman in Year 1, accomplishments have been minimal. He hasn’t brought USC to the College Football Playoff and his record has dipped in each of his three seasons. The Trojans are 5-1 this year and perhaps back on the upswing, but Helton was fired for going 46-24 (.657) and 36-13 (.735) in conference play. Riley is 31-15 (.674) and 20-11 (.645).

Miami: Manny Diaz for Mario Cristobal in 2021

Diaz only got three seasons after replacing Mark Richt. He went 21-15 and 16-9 in ACC play, never finishing with a losing record in conference and finishing in the top 25 in 2020. Cristobal is 27-16 but was 22-16 before the season began, and the Hurricanes raced to a 5-0 start. He finished 3-5 in ACC play two years in a row before importing Cam Ward from Washington State and going 10-2 last year, tripping up in the season finale against Syracuse to fall out of the ACC title game and the College Football Playoff. The trajectory of the program has improved greatly in the last two seasons, and the Hurricanes look like one of the nation’s best teams, but Cristobal hasn’t won any hardware yet.

LSU: Ed Orgeron for Brian Kelly in 2022

Orgeron won a national title and followed it up with two .500 seasons that got him fired, but he preceded that title with 19 wins in two seasons. Kelly took the Tigers to the SEC title game in Year 1 but has spawned plenty of frustration since then. He helped Jayden Daniels win the Heisman Trophy, and the program has been better than the seasons that cost Orgeron his job, but Kelly has hardly made a leap and finds himself on a moderately hot seat in 2025, though LSU is 5-1 so far this year. This week, the Tigers are an underdog at … Vanderbilt? Kelly has work to do to avoid becoming the first LSU coach since Gerry Dinardo at the turn of the century to leave LSU without a national title ring.

Houston: Dana Holgorsen for Willie Fritz in 2023

Holgorsen won 20 games in Houston’s final two seasons in The American. After a 4-8 debut in the Big 12, the Cougars waved goodbye and hired Fritz. Fritz went 4-8 in his first season and is off to a nice start in 2024 at 5-1, but Houston hasn’t beaten a FBS team with a winning record in that run and lost by 24 at home to title favorite Texas Tech. Early signs of progress are strong, but it’s a stretch to say Houston’s taken any leaps yet.

Got worse

Florida: Dan Mullen for Billy Napier in 2021

Mullen was fired after going 5-6 in Year 4 following three major bowl bids and an SEC title game appearance. Mullen also left Napier a first-round draft pick in Anthony Richardson. But Napier has just one winning season (8-5 in 2024) on his resume so far and is 2-4 this season. There was hope after winning the last four games of 2024 and returning D.J. Lagway that Napier could turn the corner. Instead, he looks almost certainly on his way out at some point between now and December.

Wisconsin: Paul Chryst for Luke Fickell in 2022

Chryst won 70 percent of his Big Ten games in seven-plus seasons in Madison. He also won at least 10 games four times, with another nine-win season. But after going 9-4, Chryst was fired after a 0-2 start in Big Ten play. Fickell took over, reshaped the program’s offensive identity, and it’s been a disaster. The program is getting worse year by year. Last year was the first losing season since 2001, and this year, the Badgers are contending for the worst Power 4 team. The program strayed from the power running identity that marked the program under Barry Alvarez, Bret Bielema and Chryst, and alienated its fan base as the losses piled up, too.

Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill for Derek Mason in 2023

Stockstill was a reliable old Chevy in Murfreesboro. From 2012 through 2022 (excluding 2020), he won between six and eight games in nine of 10 seasons. However, the program wasn’t competing for conference titles in Conference USA like it was in the Sun Belt. After a 4-8 season in 2023 (3-5 in conference play), the Blue Raiders moved on and turned to former Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason. He went 3-9 in Year 1, and it’s gotten worse in Year 2. In-state FCS opponent Austin Peay beat Mason’s team by 20 in the season opener. FBS newcomer Missouri State beat them at home last week. The lone win this season came over Nevada, which is 1-5 with a single win over an FCS team.

North Carolina: Mack Brown for Bill Belichick in 2024 

Brown’s Tar Heels teams suffered frustrating losses and had leaky defenses, but the program was on solid footing with him in charge. He went 44-33 in his second run in Chapel Hill, with an ACC title game appearance that served as his only loss by more than 25 points in six seasons. Belichick has three of those 25-point-plus losses in his first three games against Power 4 competition. In addition to the embarrassing offseason stories, the play on the field has been dreadful, making UNC the sport’s resident punching bag. It’s still Year 1, and a press conference on Monday, Belichick sounded committed to UNC and his plan, but he’s the only coach on this list whose buyout has been a major topic of conversation midway through his first season.

 

Posted
On 10/13/2025 at 1:36 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

No we wouldn't.  Not in this day in age.  Shit has changed since Strong got fired.

Stop trolling.  Fuccboi.

Yes we would. It hasn’t even been 10 years and we caught shit when Charlie never had fewer than 7 losses in a season. Penn St was in the playoffs LAST SEASON.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...