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Blastfurnace 2023


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13 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Weak cyclonic flow aloft along with daytime heating and the
seabreeze may be enough to kick off some isolated convection this
afternoon over portions of the coastal plains and Highway 77
corridor. Chances are low and will maintain 20% Pops in the forecast
in case a shower or storm manages to develop. Otherwise, hot
temperatures continue this afternoon and early evening with heat
index values peaking in the 104 to near 107 degree range this
afternoon. A Special Weather Statement for the elevated heat index
values remains in effect for portions of the Rio Grande plains and
counties along and east of the I-35 corridor through early evening.

It will be warm overnight with continued southeast and some patchy
morning cloud cover keeping lows generally in the 70s to lower 80s.
The weak area of cyclonic flow in the mid and upper levels continue
to drop into south Texas tomorrow. Any weak lift along with daytime
heating and adequate moisture may allow for some afternoon
convection to develop near the coastal plains. Some of the hi-res
models are also hinting at the possibility of convection developing
just north of our region tomorrow afternoon. If convection manages
to develop over northwest Texas along a cold front, then we may see
an outflow boundary drop southward toward portions of the Hill
Country tomorrow. If this occurs, we may need to add a low chance
for showers and storms to portions of the Hill country and nearby I-
35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023


The long term forecast begins with a warming trend and good
possibilities for heat headlines starting on Thursday through at
least Saturday across most areas of south central Texas. Thursday`s
highs are expected to range from the mid 90s across the southern
Edwards Plateau and up to 106 degrees along Interstate 35 and the
coastal plains. Heat index values could reach up to 111. Even hotter
conditions are forecast for Friday with highs in the upper 90s across
the southern Edwards Plateau and from 100 to 108 across the rest of
the local area with heat indices as high as 112.

Continued hot and humid on Saturday with highs in the upper 90s and
up to 106 with mostly sunny skies through mid afternoon. Clouds
could start developing mid to late afternoon into early evening as
an upper level short wave pushes down from central Texas into the
Hill Country. Can`t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms across
the Hill Country and areas along and east of a Fredericksburg, New
Braunfels to Cuero line. Otherwise, dry and hot.

By Sunday, the subtropical high weakens a bit and allows a few weak
disturbances to push down from central Texas to our local area along
the eastern periphery of the high. This scenario brings another
round of showers and thunderstorms for areas along and east of a
Fredericksburg, San Antonio and Karnes City line. Rainfall amounts
are likely limited with only a few places getting one tenth of an
inch or so.

Are you ready for cooler weather? We are guessing the answer is
affirmative. On that note, Monday`s highs are expected to be around
the mid to upper 90s with a few locations reaching the 100 degree
mark in addition to slight to low end chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and the
coastal plains. A cold front is forecast to push across the local
area on Tuesday with chances for showers and thunderstorms across
most of south central Texas. Tuesday`s highs across some parts of
the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to only reach the
upper 80s while the rest of the local area stays in the low to mid
90s. Overnight lows will feel fantastic Wednesday morning as
temperatures drop to the mid 60s.

Good news

You arrogant ass.....

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In every post-apocalyptic or dystopian novel or film, it's mainly the "how it's going" narrative.  But many of them, either in a prologue or sorts, or some flashback device during the Second Act, will have a "how it started" arc as well.  And therein the disconnect, lies the rub.  One day, it really will have rained in Texas for the last time in human existence.  But they won't know it.  It'll just be this mutually agreed upon myth that it really did used to rain.  

Somebody once told me that someday, I'll pick up my youngest child for the last time.  But I won't know it at the time.  And by the time I realized I hadn't done it in forever, it'll have been too long for me to remember the actual occurrence in my mind's eye.  

It's not this year.  But it will be a year in the not too distant future.  But they won't know the last rain.  It will just be this random Tuesday with a few drops.  And nobody will know anything about it, until it's all over.  Now if you'll excuse me, I have my hose on illegally. 

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52 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

In every post-apocalyptic or dystopian novel or film, it's mainly the "how it's going" narrative.  But many of them, either in a prologue or sorts, or some flashback device during the Second Act, will have a "how it started" arc as well.  And therein the disconnect, lies the rub.  One day, it really will have rained in Texas for the last time in human existence.  But they won't know it.  It'll just be this mutually agreed upon myth that it really did used to rain.  

Somebody once told me that someday, I'll pick up my youngest child for the last time.  But I won't know it at the time.  And by the time I realized I hadn't done it in forever, it'll have been too long for me to remember the actual occurrence in my mind's eye.  

It's not this year.  But it will be a year in the not too distant future.  But they won't know the last rain.  It will just be this random Tuesday with a few drops.  And nobody will know anything about it, until it's all over.  Now if you'll excuse me, I have my hose on illegally. 

Call me Ishmael

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25 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

It is fucking disgusting out this morning.

Yeah, I grew up in the humidity, so 99% of the time people complain about it here (Austin), I don't even notice. This morning I felt it.

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1 hour ago, hookem2010 said:

It is fucking disgusting out this morning.

Started yesterday for us here in Houston. Leaving the office around 6:30 yesterday it was oppressively swampy, even inside my building's parking garage. Somehow it felt a little hotter and muggier when I went outside around 9:00 last night. 

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4 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

My weather app is now saying 89/70, 35% rain next Tuesday. I will be dancing in the streets if this comes to fruition.

haha-agamemnon.gif

Dude.

You've been paying attention to this timeline.

I suspect that forecast would be closer to correct with a "1" in front of each of those temps.  High of 189, low of 170....sounds about right.

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Well, so far climate change hasn't fucked with sunrise and sunset, nor the track of the sun.  Moving forward, a later sunrise and a more southerly track will actually conspire to mitigate max temperatures.

You know, by 1-2 deg F or so.  3, tops.  Until we're plumetted into a -10 F week or so in late January.  Then back to blast furnace.

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21 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I don't know... the temperatures are holding on the forecast (I never saw 80s on Wunderground and most of y'all are relying on turrrible apps)

image.thumb.png.58b8f9de2ee2b53e6a36bca1e86a31fd.png

Seems to track with KXAN.  CBS is similar so I believe the cool down but think the rain is a lie.

image.png.42ec92583c5c1e9bc7fac1f6400c4f7d.png

Alright, Tuesday is looking glorious for you guys!

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21 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

you guys believing this cool down and rain shit are something else.  

Yeah, those 10 day forecasts magically adjust after a couple of days  so that the cooling/rain cocktease is perpetually 10 days out. Next thing we'll know it'll be June again, we'll realize we never sniffed 60 all winter, and the forecasts start inching towards 115. On a positive note, we wont have to rake leaves next year, because all of our trees will be fucking dead. 

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